May 4, 2007
DIVISION I MEN
ALREADY IN: Cornell, Georgetown, Navy, Notre Dame
AT-LARGE LOCKS: Duke, Hopkins, Maryland, Princeton, UNC, Virginia
AT-LARGE PROBABLES: Loyola
REMAINING AQs (contenders): America East (Albany/UMBC), CAA (Delaware/Towson), MAAC (Canisius/Providence/Siena/St. Joseph's)
IF THEY LOSE, THEY'RE STILL IN: Albany
ON THE BUBBLE: Bucknell, Colgate, Delaware (CAA finalist), Drexel, Penn, Towson (CAA finalist), UMass, UMBC (America East finalist), Yale
No. 16 Colgate (10-5) at No. 19 Syracuse (5-7) - Saturday, 1 p.m.
Who'd have thought Syracuse would be playing the spoiler in this one? That is the case, however, as Colgate hangs on to its pair of wins over Bucknell on the bubble. A win could ensure an AQ for the Raiders.
LMO Predicts: Syracuse 12, Colgate 8
Massachusetts (7-6) at Rutgers (6-6) - Saturday, 1 p.m.
Is it too little, too late for 2006's Cinderella? Even with a win, UMass might be hard-pressed for an at-large, despite a pretty good strength of schedule (15th, according to laxpower.com). The Scarlet Knights, meanwhile, had it come together for one game (a 17-7 win over Loyola), but have been otherwise unimpressive.
LMO Predicts: Massachusetts 12, Rutgers 10
Denver (8-7) at Penn (6-6) - Saturday, 1 p.m.
Penn could be the Harvard of 2007, but the Quakers would have to win to even be considered. And any time you're coming out of the Ivy League, your strength of schedule spikes your RPI. A stretch, yes, but if the conference tournaments shake out favorably, Penn would be remiss to lose this game.
LMO Predicts: Penn 9, Denver 7
America East Championship (Albany, N.Y.)
Championship Game: No. 13 UMBC (10-4) at No. 11 Albany (13-2) - Saturday, 1 p.m.
If UMBC manages to steal the title, again, from the host and favorite Great Danes, there will certainly be some pooh-poohing on the part of other at-large hopefuls, because Albany would bump them all down in the mix. Danes goalie Brett Queener had been battling an undisclosed injury he suffered against Binghamton in April, which led to more minutes for Dan McKeon. Even though Queener has reportedly recovered fully, UMBC has some pretty nasty shooters.
LMO Predicts: UMBC 12, Albany 11
CAA Championship (Towson, Md.)
Championship Game: No. 17 Delaware (10-5) at No. 14 Towson (9-5) - Saturday, 7:30 p.m.
An illegal stick penalty cooked the Blue Hens in the regular season meeting, as the Tigers have had their number in the past. Delaware, while considered an at-large candidate, probably needs to win the CAA title to qualify. Towson's a good bet for an at-large bid even if it loses.
LMO Predicts: Delaware 12, Towson 10
DIVISION I WOMEN
ALREADY IN: Holy Cross, Le Moyne/Monmouth (play-in game Saturday), Penn, Syracuse
AT-LARGE LOCKS: Duke, Maryland, UNC, Virginia
AT-LARGE PROBABLES: Georgetown, Princeton
REMAINING AQs (contenders): America East (Albany/BU/New Hampshire/Stony Brook), ALC (Hopkins/Northwestern/Penn State/Vanderbilt), Atlantic 10 (George Washington/Richmond/St. Bonaventure/Temple), CAA (Delaware/Hofstra/James Madison/Old Dominion)
IF THEY LOSE, THEY'RE STILL IN: Northwestern
ON THE BUBBLE: Denver, Hopkins (ALC semifinalist), James Madison (CAA semifinalist), Notre Dame, Penn State (ALC semifinalist), Vanderbilt (ALC semifinalist), Yale
ALC Tournament (Baltimore, Md.)
Semifinal 1: No. 18 Penn State (9-7) vs. No. 1 Northwestern (15-1) - Friday, 5:30 p.m.
Semifinal 2: No. 10 Vanderbilt (11-4) at No. 8 Johns Hopkins (10-6) - Friday, 7:30 p.m.
Championship Game: Sunday, 1 p.m.
Penn State has a win over UNC and a pretty haughty strength of schedule (fifth in the nation, according to laxpower.com), so the Nittany Lions will be in the conversation regardless. A win over Northwestern obviously gets them in. Probably not gonna happen.
Hopkins and Vanderbilt, meanwhile, meet in a crucial head-to-head match-up of teams bubbling. Vandy won the regular season encounter down south, but Hopkins has a probable top-five win (Virginia) that the Commodores do not. Looks like a win-and-in for either team.
LMO Predicts: Northwestern 15, Penn State 11; Johns Hopkins 10, Vanderbilt 9
Championship: Northwestern 17, Johns Hopkins 10
CAA Tournament (Hempstead, N.Y.)
Semifinal 1: Old Dominion (7-7) at No. 16 Hofstra (10-6) - Friday, 5 p.m.
Semifinal 2: Delaware (11-5) vs. No. 17 James Madison (12-4) - Friday, 7:30 p.m.
Championship Game: Sunday, 1 p.m.
James Madison might be the only team of the crop capable of securing an at-large with a loss, but even the Dukes probably need to at least make the championship game. It'd be great if Old Dominion, with CAA coach of the year Sue Stahl, won it all. Throw everyone for a loop.
LMO Predicts: Hofstra 7, Old Dominion 6; James Madison 15, Delaware 12
Championship: James Madison 11, Hofstra 8
No. 8 Georgetown (10-7) at No. 11 Princeton (9-6) - Sunday, 1 p.m.
It's funny. On one hand, you could see the winner earning a seeded entry to the tournament. On the other, you could see the loser drifting back to the bubble. Georgetown's just 4-4 in its last eight games, and is limping. This is the game to watch.
LMO Predicts: Princeton 9, Georgetown 8
No. 2 Penn (13-1) at No. 7 Syracuse (12-4) - Sunday, 1 p.m.
Both are in via AQs, but it's a Top 10 match-up nonetheless, with seeding implications. A little momentum would be nice, too. Syracuse is on a tear, and its defense is actually starting to kick in with that highfalutin offense. The Orange has won six straight, outscoring opponents 107-49 in that stretch, since losing by just three to Northwestern, a team that housed Penn by nine.
LMO Predicts: Syracuse 13, Penn 10
DIVISION II/III TAILGATE
MEN
NESCAC Semifinals (Medford, Mass.)
Semifinal 1: Middlebury (8-6) at No. 7 Tufts (12-2) - Saturday, 12 p.m.
Semifinal 2: Williams (8-5) vs. No. 4 Wesleyan (15-1) - Saturday, 3 p.m.
This tournament will go a long way in determining how Pool C plays out in D-III. While Tufts is the top seed, Wesleyan actually has the better résumé for an at-large berth, so bubble teams will be pulling hard for the Cardinals. John Raba's club will be facing a young Williams team starting to jell, but Wesleyan shouldn't have much trouble advancing to the title game. The last team Tufts wanted to see in the semis was a proud Middlebury team trying to salvage its season. The two teams met last week and it took overtime for the Jumbos to pull it out. This could be interesting.
LMO Predicts: Middlebury 11, Tufts 9; Wesleyan 9, Williams 4
Pilgrim League Championship (Springfield, Mass.)
Springfield (8-8) at No. 3 Western New England (15-0) - Saturday, 4:30 p.m.
This is another spooky game for bubble teams who desperately need Western New England to win it. The records look like a mismatch, but this game between city rivals will be a dogfight. WNEC is one of three undefeated teams in the nation, but Springfield took the Golden Bears to the brink in the regular season before falling, 10-9. John Klepacki, a Springfield grad, knows his alma mater plays its entire season for this chance, so his team will have to be sharp. WNEC is in the tournament even if it loses, but this is a big psychological step for the Bears.
LMO Predicts: Springfield 12, WNEC 11
ODAC Championship (Salem, Va.)
No. 12 Lynchburg (13-3) at No. 11 Roanoke (13-4) - Sunday, 1 p.m.
This is a sleep-easy game for one of these teams. With all of the various permutations concerning the at-large bids, the winner of this automatic qualifier will get a comfortable night of shut-eye on Saturday while the loser will toss and turn. Lynchburg has had nightmares after their improbable regular season loss to the Maroons, a game that saw 'Noke score four goals in the final 50 seconds to tie the game before winning it in overtime. Roanoke has not lost since.
LMO Predicts: Roanoke 14, Lynchburg 11
WOMEN
Liberty League Semifinal (Clinton, N.Y.)
William Smith (10-5) vs. No. 12 Union (9-4) - Friday, 5 p.m.
The Liberty League has earned the right to send a second team to the tourney this year, and if it can get past this last hurdle, Union holds the best shot. The Dutchwomen destroyed the Herons two weeks ago, 19-5, and are starting to peak after a slow start. William Smith will not roll over in this game, as Pat Genovese's team played Hamilton tough and could be a threat to knock off the Continentals if they can make the title game. Union is the pick, a team you don't want to see in your regional come Monday.
LMO Predicts: Union 13, William Smith 8
NESCAC Semifinals (Middlebury, Vt.)
Semifinal 1: No. 16 Williams (6-7) at No. 3 Middlebury (12-1) - Saturday, 12 p.m.
Semifinal 2: No. 10 Amherst (9-6) vs. No. 8 Colby (11-4 - Saturday, 2:30 p.m.
It's desperation time in the NESCAC because of the four semifinalists, only one team (Middlebury) knows for a fact it will be going to the tournament. Williams has to win it all to get in and Amherst is likely in the same boat. Colby has to make it to the finals. Depending how things shake out, two to four teams could earn a bid. The Ephs played Middlebury close in the regular season meeting and will keep it tight, but the Panthers are too good at home. Colby controlled Amherst earlier and will do the same.
LMO Predicts: Middlebury 16, Williams 12; Colby 12, Amherst 7
May 4, 2007
by Lacrosse Magazine Online Staff
Remember when report cards came out? As kids, we called it dead duck day, a reckoning for most.
It's dead duck day in Division I men's and women's lacrosse. The NCAA tournament brackets are half-full (or is it half-empty?), with a handful of automatic qualifiers to be distributed before at-large selections are made Sunday (men) and Monday (women).
Here's an early analysis, and a look at highlighted games this weekend with tournament implications:
DIVISION I MEN
ALREADY IN: Cornell, Georgetown, Navy, Notre Dame
AT-LARGE LOCKS: Duke, Hopkins, Maryland, Princeton, UNC, Virginia
AT-LARGE PROBABLES: Loyola
REMAINING AQs (contenders): America East (Albany/UMBC), CAA (Delaware/Towson), MAAC (Canisius/Providence/Siena/St. Joseph's)
IF THEY LOSE, THEY'RE STILL IN: Albany
ON THE BUBBLE: Bucknell, Colgate, Delaware (CAA finalist), Drexel, Penn, Towson (CAA finalist), UMass, UMBC (America East finalist), Yale
No. 16 Colgate (10-5) at No. 19 Syracuse (5-7) - Saturday, 1 p.m.
Who'd have thought Syracuse would be playing the spoiler in this one? That is the case, however, as Colgate hangs on to its pair of wins over Bucknell on the bubble. A win could ensure an AQ for the Raiders.
LMO Predicts: Syracuse 12, Colgate 8
Massachusetts (7-6) at Rutgers (6-6) - Saturday, 1 p.m.
Is it too little, too late for 2006's Cinderella? Even with a win, UMass might be hard-pressed for an at-large, despite a pretty good strength of schedule (15th, according to laxpower.com). The Scarlet Knights, meanwhile, had it come together for one game (a 17-7 win over Loyola), but have been otherwise unimpressive.
LMO Predicts: Massachusetts 12, Rutgers 10
Denver (8-7) at Penn (6-6) - Saturday, 1 p.m.
Penn could be the Harvard of 2007, but the Quakers would have to win to even be considered. And any time you're coming out of the Ivy League, your strength of schedule spikes your RPI. A stretch, yes, but if the conference tournaments shake out favorably, Penn would be remiss to lose this game.
LMO Predicts: Penn 9, Denver 7
America East Championship (Albany, N.Y.)
Championship Game: No. 13 UMBC (10-4) at No. 11 Albany (13-2) - Saturday, 1 p.m.
If UMBC manages to steal the title, again, from the host and favorite Great Danes, there will certainly be some pooh-poohing on the part of other at-large hopefuls, because Albany would bump them all down in the mix. Danes goalie Brett Queener had been battling an undisclosed injury he suffered against Binghamton in April, which led to more minutes for Dan McKeon. Even though Queener has reportedly recovered fully, UMBC has some pretty nasty shooters.
LMO Predicts: UMBC 12, Albany 11
CAA Championship (Towson, Md.)
Championship Game: No. 17 Delaware (10-5) at No. 14 Towson (9-5) - Saturday, 7:30 p.m.
An illegal stick penalty cooked the Blue Hens in the regular season meeting, as the Tigers have had their number in the past. Delaware, while considered an at-large candidate, probably needs to win the CAA title to qualify. Towson's a good bet for an at-large bid even if it loses.
LMO Predicts: Delaware 12, Towson 10
DIVISION I WOMEN
ALREADY IN: Holy Cross, Le Moyne/Monmouth (play-in game Saturday), Penn, Syracuse
AT-LARGE LOCKS: Duke, Maryland, UNC, Virginia
AT-LARGE PROBABLES: Georgetown, Princeton
REMAINING AQs (contenders): America East (Albany/BU/New Hampshire/Stony Brook), ALC (Hopkins/Northwestern/Penn State/Vanderbilt), Atlantic 10 (George Washington/Richmond/St. Bonaventure/Temple), CAA (Delaware/Hofstra/James Madison/Old Dominion)
IF THEY LOSE, THEY'RE STILL IN: Northwestern
ON THE BUBBLE: Denver, Hopkins (ALC semifinalist), James Madison (CAA semifinalist), Notre Dame, Penn State (ALC semifinalist), Vanderbilt (ALC semifinalist), Yale
ALC Tournament (Baltimore, Md.)
Semifinal 1: No. 18 Penn State (9-7) vs. No. 1 Northwestern (15-1) - Friday, 5:30 p.m.
Semifinal 2: No. 10 Vanderbilt (11-4) at No. 8 Johns Hopkins (10-6) - Friday, 7:30 p.m.
Championship Game: Sunday, 1 p.m.
Penn State has a win over UNC and a pretty haughty strength of schedule (fifth in the nation, according to laxpower.com), so the Nittany Lions will be in the conversation regardless. A win over Northwestern obviously gets them in. Probably not gonna happen.
Hopkins and Vanderbilt, meanwhile, meet in a crucial head-to-head match-up of teams bubbling. Vandy won the regular season encounter down south, but Hopkins has a probable top-five win (Virginia) that the Commodores do not. Looks like a win-and-in for either team.
LMO Predicts: Northwestern 15, Penn State 11; Johns Hopkins 10, Vanderbilt 9
Championship: Northwestern 17, Johns Hopkins 10
CAA Tournament (Hempstead, N.Y.)
Semifinal 1: Old Dominion (7-7) at No. 16 Hofstra (10-6) - Friday, 5 p.m.
Semifinal 2: Delaware (11-5) vs. No. 17 James Madison (12-4) - Friday, 7:30 p.m.
Championship Game: Sunday, 1 p.m.
James Madison might be the only team of the crop capable of securing an at-large with a loss, but even the Dukes probably need to at least make the championship game. It'd be great if Old Dominion, with CAA coach of the year Sue Stahl, won it all. Throw everyone for a loop.
LMO Predicts: Hofstra 7, Old Dominion 6; James Madison 15, Delaware 12
Championship: James Madison 11, Hofstra 8
No. 8 Georgetown (10-7) at No. 11 Princeton (9-6) - Sunday, 1 p.m.
It's funny. On one hand, you could see the winner earning a seeded entry to the tournament. On the other, you could see the loser drifting back to the bubble. Georgetown's just 4-4 in its last eight games, and is limping. This is the game to watch.
LMO Predicts: Princeton 9, Georgetown 8
No. 2 Penn (13-1) at No. 7 Syracuse (12-4) - Sunday, 1 p.m.
Both are in via AQs, but it's a Top 10 match-up nonetheless, with seeding implications. A little momentum would be nice, too. Syracuse is on a tear, and its defense is actually starting to kick in with that highfalutin offense. The Orange has won six straight, outscoring opponents 107-49 in that stretch, since losing by just three to Northwestern, a team that housed Penn by nine.
LMO Predicts: Syracuse 13, Penn 10
DIVISION II/III TAILGATE
MEN
NESCAC Semifinals (Medford, Mass.)
Semifinal 1: Middlebury (8-6) at No. 7 Tufts (12-2) - Saturday, 12 p.m.
Semifinal 2: Williams (8-5) vs. No. 4 Wesleyan (15-1) - Saturday, 3 p.m.
This tournament will go a long way in determining how Pool C plays out in D-III. While Tufts is the top seed, Wesleyan actually has the better résumé for an at-large berth, so bubble teams will be pulling hard for the Cardinals. John Raba's club will be facing a young Williams team starting to jell, but Wesleyan shouldn't have much trouble advancing to the title game. The last team Tufts wanted to see in the semis was a proud Middlebury team trying to salvage its season. The two teams met last week and it took overtime for the Jumbos to pull it out. This could be interesting.
LMO Predicts: Middlebury 11, Tufts 9; Wesleyan 9, Williams 4
Pilgrim League Championship (Springfield, Mass.)
Springfield (8-8) at No. 3 Western New England (15-0) - Saturday, 4:30 p.m.
This is another spooky game for bubble teams who desperately need Western New England to win it. The records look like a mismatch, but this game between city rivals will be a dogfight. WNEC is one of three undefeated teams in the nation, but Springfield took the Golden Bears to the brink in the regular season before falling, 10-9. John Klepacki, a Springfield grad, knows his alma mater plays its entire season for this chance, so his team will have to be sharp. WNEC is in the tournament even if it loses, but this is a big psychological step for the Bears.
LMO Predicts: Springfield 12, WNEC 11
ODAC Championship (Salem, Va.)
No. 12 Lynchburg (13-3) at No. 11 Roanoke (13-4) - Sunday, 1 p.m.
This is a sleep-easy game for one of these teams. With all of the various permutations concerning the at-large bids, the winner of this automatic qualifier will get a comfortable night of shut-eye on Saturday while the loser will toss and turn. Lynchburg has had nightmares after their improbable regular season loss to the Maroons, a game that saw 'Noke score four goals in the final 50 seconds to tie the game before winning it in overtime. Roanoke has not lost since.
LMO Predicts: Roanoke 14, Lynchburg 11
WOMEN
Liberty League Semifinal (Clinton, N.Y.)
William Smith (10-5) vs. No. 12 Union (9-4) - Friday, 5 p.m.
The Liberty League has earned the right to send a second team to the tourney this year, and if it can get past this last hurdle, Union holds the best shot. The Dutchwomen destroyed the Herons two weeks ago, 19-5, and are starting to peak after a slow start. William Smith will not roll over in this game, as Pat Genovese's team played Hamilton tough and could be a threat to knock off the Continentals if they can make the title game. Union is the pick, a team you don't want to see in your regional come Monday.
LMO Predicts: Union 13, William Smith 8
NESCAC Semifinals (Middlebury, Vt.)
Semifinal 1: No. 16 Williams (6-7) at No. 3 Middlebury (12-1) - Saturday, 12 p.m.
Semifinal 2: No. 10 Amherst (9-6) vs. No. 8 Colby (11-4 - Saturday, 2:30 p.m.
It's desperation time in the NESCAC because of the four semifinalists, only one team (Middlebury) knows for a fact it will be going to the tournament. Williams has to win it all to get in and Amherst is likely in the same boat. Colby has to make it to the finals. Depending how things shake out, two to four teams could earn a bid. The Ephs played Middlebury close in the regular season meeting and will keep it tight, but the Panthers are too good at home. Colby controlled Amherst earlier and will do the same.
LMO Predicts: Middlebury 16, Williams 12; Colby 12, Amherst 7
