July 27, 2006
It's hot. Really hot. So hat that the only time you can actually get any work done is in the evening when the breezes kick up and the sun takes an eight hour nap.
On this particular evening I'm going to sort out my Dog Days Top 20 Power Ranking, a ranking of the Division III men's lacrosse teams and expectations for the upcoming year (not to be confused with a preseason poll). Since I don't get any input during the regular season, I figured I might as well get in on the ground floor before things start back up in full. They'll no doubt be some surprises along with the usual suspects, but with the first game still seven months off it's time to construct the Power Rankings.
20. Washington & Lee (7-6)
While guiding Hamilton to an 11-3 record last spring, Gene McCabe stressed a stingy defense as his attack was a bit tepid. The team he takes over at W&L likely looks similar as the Generals were solid on the backline but could not consistently put the ball in the net. Fortunately, W&L lost only two seniors off last year's squad. The top six scorers return, the entire defense remains intact, and senior Chris Lalli will give the Generals the best goalie in the ODAC. W&L had help making the Power Rankings because I enjoy writing the name Spotty Robins, one of the Gennies top defenders.
19. Cabrini (13-3, NCAA 2nd Round)
Power rankings don't mean top dogs in weak AQ conferences automatically make the cut, but the Cavaliers have proven, despite the weak PAC, they belong. Seven seniors are gone, including the second and third leading scorers, but sophomore sniper Scott Reimer returns after potting 51 in his rookie campaign and classmate Matt Conaway could break out in '07. Cabrini loses a stud close defender in Nick Terlizzo, but the Cavs return plenty on the back line, including superb senior goalie Kevin Quinn and his 5.95 GAA and .677 save percentage.
18. WNEC (14-3)
Would you rather lose your entire attack or your entire defense? For John Klepacki and the Golden Bears, it will be a total retooling job on the back line. Gone are all three poles, leaving three fresh faces to protect Chris Body and his 6.36 GAA. Fortunately for WNEC, nine of the top 10 scorers return, including senior Adam Cherry (49-20-69) and junior Bryan Cofrin (34-21-55). The Pilgrim League is unlikely to yield an at-large bid, so the Bears need to take care of business in the conference, but if they can answer the defensive questions, they'll be around in May.
17. St. Mary's (13-4)
The Seahawks lose a decent amount of seniors (12) off a team that lost to Salisbury twice, Tufts and WAC, but they seemingly return an underclass ready to fill a void. The top two scorers have graduated but juniors Pat Oliphant (40-12-52) and Cyrus Albertson (25-13-38) appear ready to shoulder the load. The defense - SMC's strength last spring - took a hit, as well, but again there are fresh faces ready, and Rich Barr returns for his senior season after allowing just six goals a game in '06. The Capital is still a Salisbury world, but the Seahawks should provide a strong number two.
16. Nazareth (12-4, ECAC Upstate N.Y. champ)
The 2006 season swung dramatically, and irrevocably, in a two-game, two-goal span in mid-April for the Golden Flyers. Naz lost to RIT at home, 12-11, before losing the next game at Ithaca, 11-10 in four OTs. The exclusion of the Flyers from the NCAAs was not surprising, but disappointing nonetheless as that team had all the tools. With 10 seniors departed, Rob Randall must rely on a huge senior class to revive the program in '07. Just one of the top four scorers returns, but that one is Ryan Hotaling, who had another superb year and is a player of the year candidate. Goalie Alex Civalier, the MVP of the 2004 title game, graduates, but his loss will be tempered by the emergence of Patrick Mullin, who earned extensive time this past spring. Too many question marks in too good a conference have the Flyers down the rankings.
15. Hampden-Sydney (8-5)
There is such a fine line between a good team and an okay team, and Sydney head coach Ray Rostan found that out last spring. The Tigers lost five games by a total of nine goals, including one-goal losses to Mary Washington, Roanoke and Lynchburg. Rostan graduates his two leading goal scorers and one of his best defenders, but that's it. Returning are three players with at least 18 goals as well as senior Scott Russell, who posted a solid 6.60 GAA. Sometimes it just takes a lucky break or two to turn around a season and the Tigers are due, for sure.
14. Springfield (13-4, NCAA 2nd Round)
The Pride was under the radar last year, but they had a great season for a team with just three seniors on its roster. Springfield started slowly, losing three of its first five - including losses at Nazareth, Cortland, and at Bowdoin - but won 11 of the last 12 regular season games, including a win over Middlebury. Five of the top six scorers return, as well as starting goalie Kyle Cloutier. The Pride will have to contend with WNEC for the Pilgrim AQ, but they have the talent returning for an at-large selection.
13. Lynchburg (13-4, NCAA 2nd Round)
The Hornets played four Top 10 teams last year and those games accounted for all of their loses. The `Burg was in every game with those teams, but could not get over the hump. The loss of 11 seniors will force some younger players to make strides in the offseason, but the Hornets are in pretty good shape thanks to solid recruiting by Steve Koudelka. Scoring and defense are in good hands, with juniors Ryan Cranston and Johnny Black each returning 40+ points and classmate Garrett Curran back in net. With the ODAC likely improving, and a tough schedule, the Hornets may not have the power to match '06.
12. Wesleyan (16-4, NCAA semifinals)
It was a magical run for the Cardinals in '06, finally showing that there are signs of life in the NESCAC besides Middlebury. But it will be a tall order to return to last year's form in '07 with 11 seniors gone, including key performers, Glenn Adams, Jordan Funt, Bob Diehl, Mike Vitulano, and Matt Smith. Much was made of the zone defense employed by the Cardinals, but some key cogs (Smith and Diehl) will be missing in front of Charlie Congleton this coming spring. In addition, John Raba, Wesleyan's head coach, would surely be on a shortlist if a mid-level Division I job was to be filled in the coming weeks. The NESCAC overall will likely be down a bit in '07, so if some holes can be filled the Cardinals could be in the hunt.
11. Stevens Tech (14-4, NCAA 2nd Round)
It will be one more year before the Ducks join the Empire 8, and they'll have a strong squad to finish out their Knickerbocker careers. All but four players - and every starter - return from '06, including 40-goal juniors Jon Dolney (43) and J.R. Oreskovich (41). Jack Dunderdale is back for his senior season in net and will have a young, but experienced defense in front of him. Tech will easily earn an AQ to the tourney, but will also be a serious threat to some of the better non-conference teams on the schedule.
10. RIT (15-3, NCAA 2nd Round)
All of the pieces - the schedule, the scoring, the special teams, and the defense - were in place for the Tigers to make a deep run, but they were unlucky to draw a seemingly predestined Wesleyan team. The window of opportunity is still open for RIT as they graduate just six seniors and return a ton of scoring, including 190 combined points from seniors Eric Pritchard and Scott Farress and junior Andrew Ruocco. Most of the defense returns and the unit will further jell, making the Tigers a truly complete team. RIT would be helped in the postseason by strengthening its non-conference regular season schedule.
9. Middlebury (13-4, NCAA quarterfinals)
It's not the seniors they lost (nine), it's not losing a step within their conference (to Wesleyan), and it's not suffering the most losses (four) in eight years. It's all about replacing Erin Quinn, the coach who put the Panthers on the map and moved to the corner office as AD at Midd in July. Being a Midd guy, Dave Campbell knows the system and was in the process of building a nice little program at Conn. College before making the leap, but will there be a transition period?
8. Cortland (18-3, National Champs)
The Red Dragons' quest for the national title was an exhilarating ride, but one that will be terribly hard to repeat in '07. So many key players - Kyle Lambert, Matt O'Connell, Mike Abbott, Ben Gaebel, Casey Dougherty, Dan Schmitt - have moved on. And so hasn't the coach, Rich Barnes, who opted not to return, paving the way for Steve Beville to take over the reins. That's too much turnover for one program to handle and expect to stay on top. Cortland will be in the hunt, as the cupboard isn't completely bare, but it will be hard-pressed to get passed Geneseo in its own conference.
7. St. Lawrence (14-4, NCAA 2nd Round)
The Saints emerged on the national scene last year on the strength of their suffocating defense, the kind of lockdown team defense typical of a senior-laden squad. St. Lawrence, however, only loses one senior - defenseman Tripp Bartlett - and returns every player who recorded a point in `06. The Saints are talented, experienced, and confident and should easily win the Liberty this coming spring. With their stingy defense and sophomore face-off middie P.J. Santora (231-for-336, 69%), St. Lawrence is going to be a beast in the postseason.
6. Geneseo (13-3, NCAA quarterfinals)
When I look at the Geneseo program I kind of get that feeling that Jim Lyons has been pushing a bike uphill for the past five years and finally in '06 he reached the top and is picking up a little momentum. Instead of a lot of one-hit wonders that come and go each year, relying heavily on senior classes before returning to the also-rans, Geneseo has the depth returning to stay near the top of the heap. Despite some key losses, the Blue Knights return junior Mike Pizzuto (48 points), senior Owahn Bazydlo (44 points), junior face-off middie Tim McDermott (72.6%, 2nd in NCAA) and senior goalie Tim Garback, who was stellar down the stretch. This should form a nice foundation for Lyons to build around and threaten Cortland's title.
5. Roanoke (15-3, NCAA semifinals)
There are enough quality players (11 seniors) from the Maroons' semifinal run to make you think there will be a little bit of a drop off, but there are also enough battle-tested players like senior Jon Mason (57 goals), junior Zack Thomas (34-31-65) and sophomore pole Chase Phelps to be a national contender. Whether or not a pair of junior netminders can fill the shoes of Matt Madalon will be a determining factor in '07 for the Maroons. `Noke likely won't be better than last spring, but not too far off.
4. Gettysburg (17-2, NCAA quarterfinals)
Defense. It's what the Bullets seemingly always build their teams on. This coming year will be no different with all three poles (who all earned at least 2nd team all-Centennial honors) and senior goalie Pat Vaughn (first team) returning. This unit will have to weather the storm early on as Gettysburg loses all three attackman and their face-off middie to graduation, likely lengthening the offensive learning curve. This recipe is good for a solid regular season record, but puts a lot of pressure on the defense when the competition picks up in May.
3. Salisbury (20-1, National finalist)
A massive senior class returns for the Gulls and they are at No. 3? There are just too many names - and goals - leaving the program for Salisbury to be any higher right now. Yes, I know that there are probably a dozen players waiting in the wings - players like Eric Bishop, Kylor Berkman and Matt Dasinger - ready to take over for Boyer, Rohde and Hurley, but how quick will that process take? Easing that transition will be a solid defensive unit returning, anchored by senior goalie Max Zarchin.
2. Ithaca (12-5, ECAC Upstate N.Y. finalist)
It came down to a horserace between Ithaca and Wesleyan for the second at-large bid out of the North and the Bombers were a nose too short, ending their season in the ECACs instead of the NCAAs. The decision was based on formulas and number-crunching, but it's still hard to fathom Ithaca not being included in the tournament field. Fortunately for the Bombers, the will be even better in '07. Just five seniors graduate off a team that featured 24 freshman and sophomores on its 34-man roster. Matt Nelligan (50 goals) will be a junior and Mike Cintineo (35) is just a sophomore. Two-time All-American Dennis Butler returns for his senior season in net. The Empire 8 will be a bear again with Nazareth and RIT, but the Bombers should be the class of the conference.
1. WAC (14-5, NCAA quarterfinals)
For Division III fans who like to see new faces emerge on the scene, things are not looking good. The Shoremen bullies are back, and the spirited quarterfinal run in '06 appears to be just a warm-up for this coming spring. Just four seniors graduate off a team that has gone through its share of ups and downs, and is now ready for the payoff. Junior Chris Read, his No. 85 jersey, and his 41 goals return to pace the attack while senior Matt Sparks anchors the defense. The loss of long pole Tim Kerr and goalie Kevin Thibadeau will have to be addressed, but a stable of youngsters is itching for a chance. Opponents had their chance to beat up on the Shoremen, but now WAC is back and ready for a title run.
