Aug. 24, 2007

Last summer I put together my Midsummer Power Rankings for men's Division III, taking into account the results from the previous season, as well as what was expected to return in '07, to form a picture of what the division would like at its conclusion in May. The prediction business can be a cruel one, and my pick, Washington College, didn't even earn a crack at the NCAA field, never mind win it all.

But the summer means rebirth, so I shall remain undaunted by my failures of last year's Dog Days (my women's D-III ranking was equally as poor) and aim for redemption.

This year I found a lot more teams in the hunt for the final Top 20. This is a good thing. It means there are more viable teams out there in D-III, and this trend is likely to grow as the sport expands at the youth and high school level while Divisions I and II stay stagnant. It produces a trickle-down effect, or "Voo-Doo" lacrosse for those who remember `80s politics.

There were five teams on my original list that didn't hurdle the first test, and those were Geneseo, Ohio Wesleyan, Stevens Tech, Dickinson and Skidmore. There were another four that were a lot closer to making the cut, but were edged out in the end -- Hampden-Sydney, Springfield, Merchant Marine and Endicott.

Leaving us with the Midsummer Power Rankings.

20. Dension (11-4) -- NCAA First Round
NCAC teams haven't drawn much attention from the pollsters of late, and probably rightfully so, but the Big Red should be particularly strong this year. Nine of 10 starters return, including a goalie corps that combined to allowed just over six goals per outing. Head coach Matt McGinnis schedules a couple of tough non-conference South teams like Gettysburg and Salisbury to give his teams a taste of what to expect in the postseason, and they'll need it because the Big Red will surely earn one of the Pool B berths this year. Whether they advance a couple of rounds or fizzle in the first will depend on how well the team matures and the talent level in McGinnis' second recruiting class.

19. Ursinus (9-5)
I think the Bears bandwagon is going to fill up fast this season and I'm getting a seat by the window. In just the fifth year of the program's existence, C. Glenn Carter's squad started showing some signs of life, highlighted by the win over Washington College. Eight starters will be returning to Collegeville, including All-American midfielder Dane Mangin, plus a goalie, Tony Aquilino, who earned plenty of time last spring. Ursinus does reside in a power conference, the Centennial, which will make a tourney invite a tough proposition, but they deserve to among the nation's summer top 20.

18. Washington & Lee (9-6)
The Generals lost three one-goal games and a two-goal contest in Gene McCabe's first go-around in Lexington and were outclassed by only two teams (nine goals losses to both Gettysburg and Lynchburg), so W&L had its chances to have a better season. It's been three years now since W&L has sniffed the postseason, but seven returning starters will strengthen the '08 edition. McCabe will have to replace Chris Lalli in goal along with a couple of other key cogs. The new coach is well-suited for W&L, but McCabe's first recruiting class will have to be an impact one to save the program from slipping into the second tier.

17. RIT (14-3)
The Tigers are included in the power rankings based solely on the reputation of the program and the recruiting acumen of Gene Peluso because they have some work to do. RIT loses eight starters and 10 seniors off a team just out of the NCAA hunt, including its top two scorers -- All-Americans Eric Pritchard (36g, 29a) and Scott Farress (45g, 11a). Peluso has Andrew Ruocco (25g, 16a) returning to help on the attack along with Jacob Brunner and his 60.0 face-off percentage, but veteran goalie John Foley is gone. Stevens Tech and a resurgent Hartwick squad, in addition to the usual conference suspects, will make the Empire 8 a bear this year, but the Tigers will likely jump up and bite someone along the way.

16. Keene State (16-1) -- NCAA 2nd Round
Teams like Keene State are tough to gauge. The Owls have been a minor presence in New England for a couple of years now -- they went 58-23 from 2002-06 -- but nothing near their spectacular play last year. KSC may not be as strong in '08, especially with the loss of Sean Panora (34g, 23a) and Mike LeSage (177-of-272 face-offs, 65.1%), but with six returning starters the Owls should repeat as Little East champs. Mark Theriault has a pipeline to Pinkerton Academy -- 10 players came from N.H.'s best prep program -- and Matt Johnson may be the most important Astros grad. Johnson, a rising senior, allowed just 5.55 goals per game and stopped 71 percent of the shots he faced, and will have to keep that up again if the Owls want to stick around.

15. Villa Julie (11-5)
Because of the transient nature of the Mustangs' roster it's tough to size up the strength of Villa Julie in the summer, but at this point it looks like six starters will be returning. Coach Paul Cantabene's approach to scheduling means Villa Julie will have to gel in a hurry. In addition to the CAC schedule, the Mustangs will play non-con games against Gettysburg, Ursinus, Washington College, Lynchburg, and Cortland. It's a smart play with Salisbury in his conference -- VJ is almost assuredly going into Pool C -- but one that will leave little margin for error, especially considering what happened to the South teams last spring.

14. Cabrini (15-3) -- NCAA 2nd Round
On his way to putting Cabrini on the map coach Steve Colfer has been stressing defense. Considering what the Cavaliers lost from last year's team, Colfer will need to stress defensive recruiting. Three All-Americans -- goalie Kevin Quinn along with close defenders Bill Cordts and Rob Tinsley -- graduate from a defensive unit that allowed less than six goals a game, so the '08 version of Cabrini may have a different look. The top five scorers, including sophomore Casey Grugan (44g, 27a)and junior Scott Reimer (45 g, 9a), are back to bolster the Cavs. The PAC automatic qualifier will still run through Cabrini, but if Colfer can plug in a couple of strong defenders then they'll be a tough out.

13. Nazareth (16-3) -- NCAA Quarterfinalist
Much like I gave Naz's Empire 8 neighbor, RIT, the benefit of the doubt despite major losses, I feel compelled to do the same for the Golden Flyers. First team All-Americans Ryan Hotaling and Chad Amidon are gone, along with five of the top six scorers and goalie Pat Mullin, but there are some up-and-comers who might soften the blow. Sophomore Erinn O'Hara (24g, 14a) will anchor the attack while seniors Matt Aloi (16g, 4a) and Aaron Civalier (16g, 4a) will pace the midfield. Three sophomore goalies will try to replace Mullin behind a revamped backline. This ranking may prove to be a little high, but Rob Randall's track record allows me to do it.

12. Washington College (11-6)
This spot seems a little high but I don't where else to put them. The Shoremen will have an interesting look next year with an experienced offense and a totally revamped defense -- a situation that surely makes defensive-minded J.B. Clarke a little uneasy, but could make WAC doubly dangerous. Seniors Chris Read (31g, 20a) and Kolyn Kirby (24g, 7a), along with junior Jimmy Kielek (21g, 20a), give the Shoremen plenty of options on attack, and the midfield should be equally deep. The defense, however, will be new with the graduation of stalwart poles Matt Sparks, Dan MacDonald, Jon Kenney. This will force junior keeper Gordon Cohen to continue his improvement without a safety net.

11. Tufts (13-4) -- NCAA 2nd Round
The Jumbos love to grind out the wins. Despite going 13-4 last year, Tufts held a goal differential of just plus-16, meaning Mike Daly's club had just enough to get by game-to-game. (By contrast, Lynchburg -- another 13-4 club -- finished with a plus-102 goal edge.) If Tufts can keep that same mindset in '08 they should be able to replicate the success of this spring even with the loss of five starters. Plenty of points return and wait in the wings to keep the Jumbos moving forward, but they'll have to fill some holes on defense with the loss of Wiley Dornseif and Alex Bezdek. Junior Matt Harrigan returns in goal after playing every second in '07.

10. St. Lawrence (14-2) -- NCAA 2nd Round
Stifling defense has been the Saints trademark in the last couple of seasons, but they may have to reinvent themselves. Gone is All-American goalie Justin DeMuth (5.41 GAA) along with All-American poles J.J. Hearty and Brian Crowley. We'll find out what the new invention is over a 12-day stretch in mid-March when St. Lawrence plays at Cortland and then two games in Florid against Bowdoin and Salisbury. Four of the top five scorers return, including sophomore Will McKee (25g), but this team has always had the defensive mindset. Regardless of how they start, the Saints have learned how to win so the Liberty League will go through Canton.

9. Middlebury (11-7) -- NCAA 2nd Round
There was some concern that Dave Campbell wouldn't be able to guide the Panthers to a winning record, never mind push Middlebury's streak of NESCAC championships to seven. Yet there they were in the end, raising the trophy once again. Now that Campbell has set the tone, the program may resume its accustomed place near the top of the polls. Goalie Alex Palmisano and face-off stud Peter Mellen are gone, but there is plenty of talent waiting. Plus, there is a stable of scorers, paced by senior All-American Jim Cabrera (30g), who should hide any early-season defensive deficiencies. With two conference teams ranked ahead of them the Panthers may not be favored to win the conference, but it's tough to bet against them.

8. Gettysburg (16-3) -- NCAA Semifinalist
Considering the make-up of the traditional heavyweights in the conference, the Centennial may change from a grind-it-out defensive league to a run-and-gun circuit. Like WAC, the Bullets returning plenty of goals, but gone are All-American Pat Vaughan (4.95 GAA) and stellar poles John Fairhurst and Steve Hurst. Senior Andrew McGann will be the only remnant of 2007's stifling backline. Hank Janczyk doesn't usually have to wait for defensive stalwarts to emerge, so the returning offense -- anchored by seniors Trip Dyer (31g, 20a) and Ben Sufrin (28g, 15a) along with sophomore Joe Brody (36, 11a) -- will probably only have to carry the load for a couple of games. It's summer, but I've got a feeling about the Bullets this year.

7. Lynchburg (13-4)
There will be no need for fiery speeches from Steve Koudelka this year. Every player remaining from last year, including the seven starters, understands they cannot afford to leave their fate in anyone else's hands. The Hornets were left out of last year's tourney despite having a resume worthy of inclusion, and now they have the team to make sure it doesn't happen again. The top three snipers - junior Tyler Tolson (57g, 4a) and seniors Ryan Cranston (31g, 19a) and Stephen Weis (22g, 28a) -- return to the `Burg and the defense will be anchored by senior goalie Garrett Curran (7.96 GAA). Lynchburg has a philosophy of playing the best schedule they can, and that won't change, but the Hornets will be more virulent in '08.

6. Ithaca (16-4) -- NCAA Quarterfinalist
The Empire 8 is always in the discussion as the best conference in the country and the Bombers should be the cream of that league this spring. Seven starters, including four All-Americans, return for what could be deep run in the tourney. Ithaca does lose All-American Dennis Butler from the cage as well as some experienced poles, but the Bombers gave up nearly 10 goals a game in '07 and still managed to advance to the NCAA quarterfinals. Senior Matt Nelligan is creeping up the school scoring charts after his 77-point performance last year and classmate Craig Lepiane (46g, 17a) anchors the midfield. With the addition of Stevens Tech the E8 is going to be particularly strong this year, but the Bombers should emerge.

5. Wesleyan (18-3) -- NCAA Semifinalist
Did the goalie make the system, or did the system make the goalie? We'll find out this year as the Cardinals attempt to replace All-American Charlie Congleton. Congleton has been the backstop for the vaunted Wesleyan zone for what seems like a decade and has put up some great individual numbers while putting his team on the national map. Now we'll find out whether he was a system guy or not. There are three goalies returning -- two juniors and a sophomore -- and coach John Raba might have others ready to compete for the vacant position. All-American pole Spike Malangone returns for his junior year as does attackman Russ Follansbee and four other starters, which means Congleton's replacement will have some help.

4. Roanoke (15-5) -- NCAA Quarterfinalist
From my perspective the Maroons have the most momentum heading into the '08 season. Yes, they lost stud attackman Jon Mason (75g) and versatile defender Wes McFarlane, but all of the other pieces that enabled Roanoke to shake off an early 5-4 and win the next 10 games. It may have been a case of in-season revision, but during the early season troubles coach Bill Pilat was expecting some bumps with a very young team. He proved prophetic, and now senior Zach Thomas (39 g, 32a) and junior Chaz Carlson (23g, 44a) are ready to guide a multi-faceted attack while junior Chase Phelps anchors the defense. The Maroons even have a pair of gritty face-off guys returning. This could be a Maroon kind of year.

3. Cortland (15-6) -- NCAA Finalist
It took a while to get rid of the '06 championship hangover and adjust to the Steve Beville regime, but once the necessary adjustments were made the Red Dragons showed what they could do. And showed what they will be capable of this spring. Cortland loses an All-American at all three positions -- attackman Mike Felice, middie Ryan Simensky and pole Cheney Raymond -- but the pieces for another run deep in the playoffs return. It appears junior Michael Robinson has assumed the goaltending duties, answering one of the few questions left. The Red Dragons will face another stiff schedule but should be bolstered by Beville's first true recruiting class. Don't be surprised to see red on Memorial Day weekend again.

2. Salisbury (23-0) -- NCAA Champion
As we all know by now, the standard presumptions -- like massive turnover negatively affects success rate -- don't apply to Jim Berkman's program. However, with eight starters gone from last year's juggernaut I can't automatically pencil in the Gulls for another crown. Not yet, anyway. Goals, as usually, will not be a problem with seniors Matt Hickman (75g, 19a) and Greg Titus (76g, 15a) anchoring the attack. The defense, however, will have to entirely revamped, starting with a replacement for goalie Max Zarchin (5.40 GAA, 59 sv%). Until the backline gets their feet under them the Sea Gulls may be vulnerable to an early season stunner, but don't bank on it.

1. WNEC (17-1) -- NCAA Quarterfinalist
The first question I asked myself when contemplating whether John Klepacki's team was truly worthy of this spot was: "Could they really beat everyone else?" Being around D-III, which has been dominated by traditional powers for so long, it's a difficult mental hurdle to actually believe a relative neophyte could break through in such a spectacular way. I concluded that the Golden Bears were indeed worthy. This was bolstered by the fact that just one starter graduates off the once-beaten '07 squad. Granted that starter, Adam Cherry (43g, 19a), was the team's leading scorer, but the rest of the infrastructure is in place, including rising seniors Bryan Cofrin (32g, 25a), Chris Body (66.7 sv%, 5.68 GAA) and Travis Brown (67.5 FO%, 19pts). WNEC's conference switch, from the lacrosse-only Pilgrim to the Commonwealth Coast Conference, will keep a similar look for the Bears. Instead of having to get past Springfield for the AQ, it will now be an underrated Endicott program. Klepacki, the national coach of the year, loves to schedule tough, so WNEC is unlikely to go undefeated again, but they have all the necessities to be standing at the end.

Contact Jac Coyne at jcoyne@uslacrosse.org.