May 10, 2012

Tewaaraton Award Finalists, Winners By The Numbers

by Clare Lochary | LaxMagazine.com

I've crunched the numbers on the Tewaaraton finalists to see if I could predict a winner based on past years.

Some methodology notes: Fence-sitters listed as M/D or M/A or LSM were counted as midfielders. People who were named finalists (or winners) more than once were counted more than once.

Position

The 2012 Tewaaraton men's and women's finalist class has six attackers and four midfielders. Historically, midfielders and attackers make up 90 percent of Tewaaraton finalists (108 of 120) and 95.4 percent of winners (21 of 22, the one exception being Princeton defender Rachael Becker in 2003).

This year's class is heavier on attack (60 percent) than most. Attackers make up 36.6 percent of all finalists while midfielders comprise 53.3 percent of the total. Midfielders are slightly more likely to win the award (11 out of 22) than attackers (10 out of 22), although it breaks down differently along gender lines.

Women's midfielders are more than twice as likely (seven) to win the Tewaaraton than attackers (three). On the men's side, attackers (seven) win the award more often than midfielders (four), so the 2012 class's sole middie, Duke's CJ Costabile, has an uphill battle. Costabile would also be the first ever long-stick midfielder to win the award. Coincidence? Or, a sign that specialization in the men's game has functionally eliminated two-way midfielders and channeled the best athletes to the critical scoring area? You decide.

As tracks with historical data, goalkeepers were ignored. 2011's John Galloway (Syracuse) and 2001's Trevor Tierney (Princeton) are the only goalies to make the finalist list. Will we have to wait until 2021 to see another goalie finalist? Will a woman ever make the short list? Will someone at the position that's regularly called the most important job on the field ever win the sport's highest prize?

School


The Class of 2012 is unique in that it has 10 players from 10 different schools. Colgate's Peter Baum and Florida's Brittany Dashiell are the first-ever Tewaaraton finalists from their respective schools; Loyola's Mike Sawyer is the first men's finalist that the Greyhounds have ever produced. (Grace Gavin was a finalist for Loyola in 2011, as was Suzanne Eyler in 2003.)

Virginia's Steele Stanwick is the odds-on favorite to repeat as Tewaaraton winner, and he's part of a proud Cavalier tradition. The school has produced more Tewaaraton finalists (17) than any other school and boasts four winners (three men, one woman). Northwestern still has the most winners (five) of any individual school, and with only a women's program. In terms of women's finalists, Maryland has a slight edge (12) over the Wildcats (10), but only two Terps (Caitlyn McFadden in 2010 and Jen Adams in 2001) have ever won. On the men's side, Syracuse and Virginia have each produced 10 finalists and three winners.

Hometown


The 2012 Tewaaraton nominee class is a statistical anomaly, geographically speaking. Baum, a junior from Portland, Ore., is the first Tewaaraton finalist from the West Coast of the United States. Sawyer is the first Tewaaraton finalist from North Carolina, and Northwestern's Taylor Thornton is the first from Texas. Sawyer and Thornton are the first Tewaaraton finalists from the South.

Additionally, you may notice something missing from the list – Australians and Canadians. For the first time since 2006, the final 10 were all born in the USA.

Generally, Tewaaraton finalists (101 of 120, or 84.2 percent) come from the East Coast of the United States. New York produces the most men's finalists (26 of 60) and winners (6 of 11). Maryland is a distant second in men's finalists (16) and wins (three). Women's finalists most often come from Maryland (24), but in the winner's column, the Old Line State (two) trails New York (three) and Australia (three).

Championship Play


98.3 percent of the time, Tewaaraton finalists play for teams that are in the NCAA tournament. (Only 2 non-tournament players have ever been finalists – Army's Jeremy Boltus in 2011 and Bryant's Zach Greer in 2009 – and neither of them won.) Everyone in the Class of 2012 is on a tournament team. They are all in Division I, too, which tracks with historical trends. While DII and DIII players are eligible to win, none have ever made the finalist round.

Winning an NCAA championship is helpful if you want to win the trophy, but not essential. Seventeen of the 22 winners (77.2 percent) have won a title; three more at least made it to the championship game. Only two winners did not play in a final at all: Doug Shanahan, who carried Hofstra's men to the 2001 quarterfinals, and Katie Chrest, who led Duke's women to the 2005 semifinals.

Prediction

So...do any of these numbers hint at who might win the 2012 trophy? Taking a composite of the most likely winner from the four categories (position, school, hometown, championship play), the prototypical female Tewaaraton winner is a Northwestern midfielder from Australia OR New York on a championship team; on the men's side, it's a New Yorker who plays attack for Virginia OR Syracuse on a championship team. Since everyone is technically in the running for a championship, it's tough to make a prediction.

With no Syracuse men in the mix, that narrows it down to Stanwick (Virginia attacker) and Manny (attacker from New York). I'd lean towards Stanwick to repeat – it's rare for a previous winner to be denied. (It has happened though – Chrest won in 2005 and was a finalist but not a winner in 2006, and 2011 winner Shannon Smith did not make the 2012 finalist list.)

On the women's side, Thornton is the only Northwestern midfielder on the list. But she's a defensive midfielder (and was the 2011 IWLCA Defender of the Year) and the award usually goes to someone with a high point total. Could Schwarzmann (63 goals) nab it away? And the Wildcats are 0-2 against Florida this season. If the Gators win it all, Dashiell could be Florida's first Tewaaraton winner too.

Complete List of Finalists

Note: Past winners are in bold.

2012

Position, Player, College (Home State/Country)

A Peter Baum, Colgate (Ore.)
M CJ Costabile, Duke (Conn.)
A Will Manny, UMass (N.Y.)
A Michael Sawyer, Loyola (N.C.)
A Steele Stanwick, Virginia (Md.)

M Brittany Dashiell, Florida (Md.)
A Becky Lynch, North Carolina (N.Y.)
M Katie Schwarzmann, Maryland (Md.)
M Taylor Thornton, Northwestern (Texas)
A Michelle Tumolo, Syracuse (N.J.)

2011

A Jeremy Boltus, United States Military Academy (N.Y.)
G John Galloway, Syracuse (N.Y.)
A Rob Pannell, Cornell (N.Y.)
A Steele Stanwick, Virginia (Md.)
D Joel White, Syracuse (N.Y.)

M Grace Gavin Loyola (Md.)
M Emma Hamm Duke (Pa.)
A Sarah Mollison Maryland (Aus.)
M Katie Schwarzmann Maryland (Md.)
M Shannon Smith Northwestern (N.Y.)

2010

D Ken Clausen, Virginia (Pa.)
A Ned Crotty, Duke (N.J.)
M Kevin Crowley, Stony Brook (Can.)
A Curtis Dickson, Delaware (Can.)
D Joel White, Syracuse (N.Y.)

M Ali DeLuca, Penn (N.J.)
A Katrina Dowd, Northwestern (N.Y.)
M Brittany Kalkstein, Virginia (Md.)
M Caitlyn McFadden, Maryland (Md.)
M Jenn Russell, North Carolina (Mass.)

2009

M Matt Abbott, Syracuse (N.Y.)
A Ned Crotty, Duke (N.J.)
A Danny Glading, Virginia (Md.)
A Zack Greer, Bryant (Can.)
M Max Seibald, Cornell (N.Y.)

M Jillian Byers, Notre Dame (N.Y.)
M Carolyn Davis, Duke (N.Y.)
D Amber Falcone, North Carolina (Md.)
M Caitlyn McFadden, Maryland (Md.)
M Hannah Nielsen, Northwestern (Aus.)

2008

A Ben Rubeor, Virginia (Md.)
A Matt Danowski, Duke (N.Y.)
A Mike Leveille, Syracuse (N.Y.)
M Paul Rabil, Johns Hopkins (Md.)
M Zack Greer, Duke (Can.)

D Christy Finch, Northwestern (Ohio)
M Dana Dobbie, Maryland (Can.)
M Hannah Nielsen, Northwestern (Aus.)
A Katie Rowan, Syracuse (N.Y.)
M Kelly Kasper, Maryland (Md.)

2007

A Matt Danowski, Duke (N.Y.)
M Paul Rabil, Johns Hopkins (Md.)
A Frank Restarsis, Albany (N.Y.)
A Ben Rubeor, Virginia (Md.)
M Max Seibald, Cornell (N.Y.)

M Caroline Cryer, Duke (Colo.)
M Dana Dobbie, Maryland (Can.)
A Mary Key, Johns Hopkins (Md.)
M Kristen Kjellman, Northwestern (Mass.)
M Hannah Nielsen, Northwestern (Aus.)

2006

M Kyle Dixon, Virginia (Md.)
A Sean Morris, UMass (Mass.)
A Chris Unterstein, Hofstra (N.Y.)
A Joe Walters, Maryland (N.Y.)
A Matt Ward, Virginia (Md.)

A Katie Chrest, Duke (Md.)
M Crysti Foote, Notre Dame (N.Y)
M Kristen Kjellman, Northwestern (Mass.)
M Nikki Leib, Virginia (Pa.)
A Coco Stanwick, Georgetown (Md.)

2005

A Matt Danowski, Duke (N.Y.)
M Kyle Harrison, Johns Hopkins (Md.)
D Brodie Merrill, Georgetown (Can.)
A Sean Morris, UMass (Mass.)
A John Walker, Army (N.Y.)

M Amy Appelt, Virginia (N.Y.)
A Lindsey Biles, Princeton (Md.)
A Katie Chrest, Duke (Md.)
M Katieanne Christian, Dartmouth (Mass.)
M Kristen Kjellman, Northwestern (Mass.)

2004

A Ryan Boyle, Princeton (Md.)
M Kyle Harrison, Johns Hopkins (Md.)
D Brodie Merrill, Georgetown (Can.)
A Michael Powell, Syracuse (N.Y.)
A Jed Prossner, North Carolina (Md.)

M Amy Appelt, Virginia (N.Y.)
M Kelly Coppedge, Maryland (Md.)
M Gail Decker, James Madison (Md.)
D Michi Ellers, Georgetown (Pa.)
M Theresa Sherry, Princeton (Md.)

2003

M Kevin Cassesse, Duke (N.Y.)
M Adam Doneger, Johns Hopkins (N.Y.)
M Kyle Harrison, Johns Hopkins (Md.)
A Mikey Powell, Syracuse (N.Y.)
M Chris Rotelli, Virginia (R.I.)

M Lauren Aumiller, Virginia (Md.)
D Rachael Becker, Princeton (Pa.)
M Kelly Coppedge, Maryland (Md.)
A Suzanne Eyler, Loyola (Md.)
M Lisa Staedt, James Madison (Pa.)

2002

M Kevin Cassesse, Duke (N.Y.)
A Josh Coffman, Syracuse (N.Y.)
M Steve Dusseau, Georgetown (Ohio)
A Conor Gill, Virginia (Md.)
A Michael Powell, Syracuse (N.Y.)

D Rachael Becker, Princeton (Pa.)
A Erin Elbe, Georgetown (N.Y.)
M Christine McPike, North Carolina (N.Y.)
M Tiffany Schummer, Virginia (Md.)
M Lauren Aumiller, Virginia (Md.)

2001

A Josh Coffman, Syracuse (N.Y.)
M Steve Dusseau, Georgetown (Ohio)
A Tom Glatzel, Notre Dame (Md.)
M Doug Shanahan, Hofstra (N.Y.)
G Trevor Tierney, Princeton (N.J.)

A Jen Adams, Maryland (Aus.)
M Kate Kaiser, Duke (Md.)
M Sheehan Stanwick, Georgetown (Md.)
M Julie Shaner, Princeton (Pa.)
M Quinn Carney, Maryland (N.J.)


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