April 9, 2007

I still remember my first prophetic sports prediction. It was late March of 1992 and I was a guest on the sports talk show broadcast by the campus radio station (I was a cub reporter for my college newspaper at the time) and the topic was the championship game of the NCAA men's basketball tournament: Duke versus Michigan.

The four other individuals in the studio all picked the Fab Fivers, ranging between five and 15 points. I was the lone Blue Devil backer. I picked them by 20, which was accompanied by snickers and derisive comments.

When the final whistle blew and I proved to be prescient, I was terribly pleased with myself. If I had taken as much pride in my grade point average as that meaningless selection, the tuition bill would be a little easier to swallow. Since that time I've fallen in love with predictions. It's like an opiate, even though I'm wrong close to 80 percent of the time.

So, in the spirit of the salad days of '92, I will now attempt to predict the fields for the D-2 and D-3 men's and women's tournaments with a month left in the season. It's a brutal task, but one that needs to be tackled. Before you embark on this journey with me, you might want to set aside a block of time. This might take a while.

Men's Division II
Four teams -- one from each of the three regions (North, Central, South) and a fourth `wild card' pick (the best remaining team of all the regions) -- comprise the entrants in the men's D-2 tourney. And although some conferences hold their own tourneys, there are no automatic qualifiers.

The North region is the Northeast-10 Conference, and the only two teams on the radar are defending champ Le Moyne and upstart Bryant. At this point, Bryant is in the driver's seat with a two-game lead in the NE-10 and a head-to-head victory over the Dolphins. The Bulldogs will hold on for the bid. In the south, St. Andrew's plays the toughest overall schedule, but that is due to out-of-region games. The Knights needed to beat Limestone on Saturday to move to the head of the pack, but the Saints prevailed. It'll be Limestone again.

The Central is where things get interesting, with five teams vying for the regional bid. East Coast Conference members New York Tech, Mercyhurst, Molloy, C.W. Post and Dowling are the contenders, and will hash things out on the field over the next two weeks. I'm crossing off Dowling first -- the Lions' last two games illustrating my rationale. Molloy hosts most of its key games, but it's a step behind the top dogs. I really like this Post team, unfortunately they will get squeezed in a tight numbers game. This leaves The `Hurst and NYIT. I'll take the Lakers.

As for the wild card, Le Moyne has some key wins over the top Central teams and that will be enough to push them into the tourney. Too bad, because it's not too difficult seeing Tech win it all if given the chance.

The bracket: Le Moyne at Bryant; Limestone at Mercyhurst. The `Hurst beats Le Moyne for the walnut and bronze.

Women's Division II
When I spoke with West Chester coach Ginny Martino, who has guided the Golden Rams to championship game appearances in five of the past six seasons, a couple of weeks ago I asked her what was her magic number of wins to guarantee a bid to the four-team tourney. Her reply: "We can't afford to lose any."

Such is the nature of the D-2 women's bracket, which will leave out at least two very good teams this spring. The current structure sends two teams from the North region and two teams from the South (no AQs), pairing off for a shot at the title, which will be held in Salem, Va.

West Chester will earn one of the southern slots, but I'm going to make a bold pick for the other. The second invitation will come down to the game on Monday, April 16 when Lock Haven, which joined WCU as last year's South duo, visits Gannon. Home field will give the Lady Knights the pivotal advantage, sending independent Gannon to the dance.

Just as the South region will come down to one game, so will the North. And it will occur on Sunday, April 15 when Stonehill travels to Adelphi with a ticket waiting for the winner. The level of competition will determine the outcome, and that advantage lies squarely with Adelphi. Stonehill has been steamrolling opponents, but the Skyhawks have yet to be tested. The Panthers have battled several quality teams so far and that will be the difference. Adelphi will be joining fellow East Coast Conference rival C.W. Post in the tourney. (Note: Yes, I know Stonehill also plays Post, but I don't see the Pioneers having much trouble.)

The bracket: Adelphi v. C.W. Post; Gannon v. West Chester. WCU makes it to another championship game, but falls short to Post.

Women's Division III
Things become so much more difficult when dealing with automatic qualifiers. In addition to the host of upsets, there are also conferences featuring two or more teams capable of winning the tournament and earning an at-large berth.

This year's D-3 women's tournament will feature 24 teams: 15 from AQ conferences (Pool A), four from independent schools/non-AQ conferences (Pool B), and five at-larges (Pool C).

Let's start with my projected Pool A entrants, by conference:

Capital: Mary Washington will give it a shot, but in the end it will be Salisbury.
Centennial: F&M will receive a bid, but it will be Gettysburg with the AQ.
Commonwealth Coast: Endicott is the logical choice, but I smell a Gordon upset.
Empire 8: Nazareth knows how to win, although Ithaca will make the Flyers work.
Liberty: Three quality teams. Hamilton will edge out Union and William Smith.
Little East: The tough early-season sked gives Eastern Conn. a boost. Plymouth State is real close.
Middle Atlantic: My head says Elizabethtown; my heart says Lycoming.
NESCAC: Until further notice, it's Middlebury.
NEWLA: I don't think Western New England could lose this if they wanted to.
NEWMAC: The Beavers knocked off Tufts, so Babson's the pick.
North Coast: It might be close, but Ohio Wesleyan comes out on top.
Old Dominion: It's difficult to envision W&L not winning it.
Penn. Athletic: Cabrini. Book it.
SUNYAC: I really want to pick Buffalo State, but Cortland won't let me.
USA South: Kwame Lloyd and Christopher Newport return to the dance.

Pool B teams split up four bids, which is probably two bids too many at this point. The presence of The College of New Jersey always gives indpendents some cachet. The two-time defending champs are a staple in Pool B, just as they will be this year. The other selections won't have nearly the impact.

Colorado College's record will not be pretty, but they have played a stiff schedule and deserve to be in. If there had been four bids available last year (there were only three), Montclair State would have filled the spot. The Red Hawks will get in this spring.

The last berth will come down to Rowan and Claremont-Mudd-Scripps. The Profs are currently under .500, but have played a big league schedule. If they win out, which they should, they'll be 10-6 and that will be enough. The Athenas will likely finish with a 15-1 mark and I think CMS could hold its own if it made the tourney, but its schedule doesn't hold a candle to Rowan's. It will be interested to see how the numbers crunch at the end of the season, but I'm picking the Profs.

That leaves five at-large teams to fill out the field. Both Amherst and Mary Washington are second tier teams in their own league, but each has played a tough enough slate to merit inclusion. By my math, the final three slots will be contested by five programs.

When making the selections, we have to look at the likelihood of a respectable finish and the body of work so far. William Smith still has some work to do in the Liberty, but I think Pat Genovese has the squad to power through. I like what Meg Stevens is doing at Buffalo State, but there isn't enough punch in the schedule, partly through no fault of their own (St. Mary's and Cortland are having poorer seasons than expected). Dickinson has been up and down this season and there is just too much baggage (in the form of bad losses) to push their way in.

This leaves the rest to the NESCAC, the greedy group that sent three at-large bids last spring. If it weren't for the cannibalistic nature of the league, this power conference has the talent to grab all five of the at-larges, but Bowdoin and Colby have been chewed up along the way. (Colby was my, um, title pick during the summer). That leaves Williams and a frisky Trinity squad to fill out the field.

The bracket: the semifinals will be difficult to project considering all of the possible bracket permutations, but this is why I'm paid the big bucks. It'll be Middlebury against TCNJ on one side and Salisbury versus Gettysburg on the other. Middlebury takes down the Bullets in the title game.

Men's Division III
In what is becoming par for the course, the 2007 men's D-3 tournament is shaping up to be the Salisbury Invitational. Again. Alas, there are a number of teams in both the north and south who could confirm the old `On Any Given Day' adage like Cortland did last spring.

This year there will 19 teams chosen to make a run at Salisbury. Thirteen will come from Pool A (conference AQs), two from Pool B (independents) and four from Pool C (at-large). Let's run down my conference picks.

Capital : One guess.
Centennial : No cake-walk, but I'm sold on Gettysburg.
Commonwealth Coast : The rest of the conference is light years behind Endicott.
Empire 8 : Tough making this pick right now. Nazareth? Ithaca? RIT.
Liberty : RPI is a nice story, but St. Lawrence is the beast in this conference.
Little East : This is a coin flip. Keene State's schedule just doesn't compare with Eastern Conn's.
Middle Atlantic : Is Messiah back? Not all the way as I'm sticking with Widener.
NESCAC : It's not the no-brainer it used to be, but I'll still take Middlebury.
North Atlantic : The Mustangs lost by 25 to Roanoke, alas Mt. Ida still gets the nod.
Old Dominion : It's not the logical pick, but Lynchburg will end up on top of this stacked deck.
Penn. Athletic : Cabrini. Period.
Pilgrim : Western New England finally climbs out of Springfield's shadow.
Skyline : Yawn. Stevens Tech.
SUNYAC : Really tough call. Loser stays home. (Flipping coin). I'll stick with the Champs.

Pool B loses a bid from last year, so it'll be a race to finish in the top two in the NCAC. One team is going to be left out of the Ohio Wesleyan-Denison-Kenyon triumvirate and I have bad feeling about the Lords. It'll be close, though.

So we're down to the four at-larges, which should be even more competitive than last year. I know the selection committee works off of cut-and-dry criteria, but there will likely be some wincing when the list of snubbed teams is compiled.

I count 14 teams that will be in the final mix, broken down into two echelons. The bottom echelon is comprised of six teams (Haverford, Ursinus, Hartwick, RPI, Roanoke, Geneseo) who could conceivably be in the hunt, but are really on the outside looking in. The other eight -- four in the North and four in the South -- are all teams having more complete résumés. There are no guarantees the at-large selections will break down evenly between regions, but I think they will. Here's how it'll play out.

In the North it will be a duo in the Empire 8, Ithaca and Nazareth, and a pair from the NESCAC, Tufts and Wesleyan. The Bombers have shown a propensity for blow-outs against quality teams, which is definitely a bad trait in the E8. Even while playing without some top players, the Flyers have shown their mettle. The race between the Jumbos and Cardinals will go down to the wire, but the head-to-head win for Tufts will be the pivotal point.

While the RIT loss could come back to bite them, I think Washington College will snag one of the bids. The Shoremen should be able to handle the middle ranks of the Centennial and finish the regular season at 11-4. That should do it. Villa Julie has had a great year, but at this point the Mustangs' only quality win (Cortland) isn't as good as it once was and is out of region.

That leaves a pair of Southern Gentlemen's Schools -- Washington & Lee and Hampden-Sydney -- vying for the last spot. The two teams meet this Saturday (April 14) and, with the importance of head-to-head, the winner gets in. I'll go with...the Generals.

The bracket: just like last year, the semifinals will not disappoint. Western New England will play RIT on one side while Gettysburg will give it another go against Salisbury. In the finals, the Tigers will find a way to frustrate the Gulls once again.

So there it is: four different divisions and 64 predictions. I'll be shocked if I get any wrong.

Contact Jac Coyne at jcoyne@uslacrosse.org.