Coyne: Predicting the MCLA Tournaments
by Jac
Coyne | Lacrosse Magazine Online Staff | Coyne Archive
LMO small college beat writer Jac Coyne has undertaken the
thankless (and useless) task of predicting the men's and women's
Division II and Division III tournaments, along with the MCLA.
Below are his MCLA Division I and II offerings.
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BYU lost to both Michigan and Simon Fraser - the
presumptive top two seeds - during the regular season, but are the
Cougars better now? Justin Hier (above) and BYU are projected
at a No. 3 seed right now, so they'll likely get another chance at
the top dogs. |
[1 Update]
Projecting the MCLA fields has gone from trying to predict how 20
coaches are going to vote in a poll - which was the previous way
the association picked and seeded its tournaments - to trying to
predict the motivating factors of six men.
There are no set criteria that must be followed by the selection
committee, but one MCLA committee member told me it would be a
variety of indicators.
"I suspect they will use a lot of the standard data - wins/losses,
strength of schedule, results against other tournament worthy
teams, avoiding early conference match-ups, etc," he said. "But I
also think they will consider some non-traditional factors like
past tournament showings - did the team travel everyone to the
tourney, for example - commitment of the program, etc."
I'm taking this as meaning the committee will be blending numbers
with common sense - always a welcome addition to the selection
process - when figuring out the seeding and at-larges.
Like the rest of the divisions, there are still a lot of moving
parts in the MCLA, most of them not being locked down until this
weekend after the completion of conference tournaments.
I've made my assumptions on how those will play out when
formulating my selections and pairings (which will be adjusted as
necessary). Before we get to them, let's look at which teams didn't
make it and why.
Division I
Florida (9-4) - The Gators are probably the toughest
omission because they compare pretty well with Cal Poly, which I
have included in the tournament. Does the WCLL deserve two at-large
bids and the SELC only one? Will the committee look at the SELC's
performance last year (four teams, three at-larges, 1-4 record)?
Ultimately, only one solid non-conference win combined with a
substandard performance in the semifinals of the conference
tournament - an 18-9 loss to Va. Tech - leave the Gators
lacking in my eyes.
Oregon (10-5) - The schedule was there, but the Ducks
could only hang their hat on a couple of close losses. There were
just no signature wins. Oregon has a chance to punch its ticket if
it can somehow upset national No. 2 Simon Fraser in the PNCLL
tourney, a team it played with four three quarters during the
regular season.
Division II
Grand Valley State (9-3) - Like Oregon, they
still could make some noise in their conference tourney and earn an
automatic berth, but the Lakers are on the outside looking in for
an at-large right now. It's a shame, because GVSU was one of the
more exciting teams to watch in last year's tournament, but losses
to St. John's, St. Thomas and Davenport have the Lakers vying with
Elon for the final at-large bid. And they don't appear to match up
too well.
Western Oregon (9-3) - I project them to lose to Southern
Oregon in the PNCLL playoffs, which would leave them in an
unfavorable position against Elon in terms of record and schedule
strength, but I wouldn't be surprised to see WOU pick up the AQ
this weekend, potentially leaving SOU out in the cold.
Northern Colorado (11-0) - The Bears are perfect, but will
need the AQ because of a schedule devoid of any tournament-caliber
teams. That means they have to beat Westminster in the RMLC title
game, which is probably a stretch.
UPDATE-1: On
Thursday, we found out that Simon Fraser was not eligible for an
at-large bid to the MCLA tournament because it didn't have
enough out-of-conference games. Thus, SFU had to win the
automatic qualifier out of the PNCLL to make the tournament. On
Friday, it was confirmed that the Clansmen also officially have a
loss on their record and should be considered 11-1 heading into the
weekend.
Why? The MCLA executive board determined that any game canceled for
a reason other than weather shall be considered a forfeit. Thus,
SFU's decision not to fly to the University of Arizona for a
contracted game after Arizona State lost its season means
they are issued a 1-0 loss to the Wildcats.
Will this loss be taken into account when seeding Simon Fraser? Via
a message board, MCLA president John Paul confirmed that it would
be. If this truly is the case, then the Clan fall in my seedings.
With its relatively weak schedule - SFU has only played two
tournament-caliber teams all season (and that assumes Oregon is
one) - a loss has to impact any of the criteria the committee uses
(unless they are "eyeballing" it) to seed. Thus, I have BYU and
Chapman - two teams that have played at least eight
tournament-quality programs - jumping SFU, dropping the
Clan to the No. 4 spot.
This is not really an indictment of the Clan's talent level - I
don't think anyone is arguing they are one of the elite teams - but
the committee has to be very careful how it treats forfeit losses.
If the committee ignores them completely in this formative year, it
sets a terrible precedent for a league that is already struggling
with cancellations. In some respects, the committee has to make an
example of Simon Fraser, and I'm guessing they'll do it by dropping
them a seed or two.
MCLA D-I
Bracket
First Round - May 12 - Denver, Colo.
#1 Michigan (14-0) vs. #16 Texas (16-3)
#2 BYU (14-3) vs. #15
Lindenwood (14-2)
#3 Chapman (13-2) vs. #14
Michigan State (10-3)
#4 Simon Fraser
(11-1) vs. #13 Cal Poly (10-3)
#5 Minn. Duluth (11-3) vs. #12 Colorado State (11-7)
#6 Cal (13-2) vs. #11 Virginia Tech (14-3)
#7 Colorado (12-5) vs. #10 Sonoma (9-5)
#8 Boston College (9-2) vs. #9 Florida State (16-2)
MCLA D-II
Bracket
First Round - May 12 - Denver, Colo.
#5 Emory vs. #12 Cal-State Fullerton
#6 Westminster vs. #11 WPI
#7 Elon vs. #10 Southern Oregon
#8 Southwestern vs. #9 Missouri State
Quarterfinals - May 13
SW/Mizz St. winner vs. #1 Dayton
Elon/SOU winner vs. #2 St. Thomas
Westminster/WPI winner vs. #3 St. John's
Emory/CSF winner vs. #4 Davenport
