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Aug 23, 2009

MD3: A Midsummer Night's Power Ranking

by Jac Coyne | Lacrosse Magazine Online Staff | Coyne Archive
Will Stevenson be jumping for joy at the end of the season like they were here after knocking off Salisbury in the NCAA tournament? There certainly aren't a whole lot of teams ranked ahead of them in these power rankings.

Yes, it's the Dog Days, which means it's time for the annual Midsummer Night's Power Ranking for men's Division III. Using a highly scientific methodology, which includes integrating results from last year, extrapolated schedules, and assessing returning players (among other data), I hashed out the teams bringing the best resumes into the 2010 season.

There were some tough omissions.

Probably the most notable from a tradition standpoint was Washington College. WAC had a 9-7 season last year and still managed to lose a pretty significant senior class, making it impossible for them to crack the Top 20. Stevens was very close with its seven returning starters, but Gene Peluso's old team had a bit more weight than his new team.

Even though the Ephs were coming off a 7-7 campaign, Williams was on the brink of cracking the line-up, but the transfer of leading scorer David Hawley to Brown dealt it a setback. That's how close it was - one player could upset the apple cart and keep a team out of pay dirt. Springfield, McDaniel, and Clarkson were initially part of the conversation, but each was hit drastically by graduation.

Believe it or not, the last team out of the Top 20 is FDU-Florham. Eight starters return from a team that lost to Haverford and W&L (in the NCAAs) by a goal and is seemingly primed for a breakout season.

One of the themes I ran across, generally speaking, is the top teams from the South (if I'm permitted to use the old school regional delineations) were bringing back a lot more of their premier players as opposed to the North. This explains why my rankings are rather top heavy in favor of "southern" squads. Roanoke, Salisbury, Stevenson and Haverford all bring back a ton of talent while the likes of Middlebury, Ithaca, Wesleyan, Tufts and WNEC were depleted.

Before we get to the rankings, one last note: please don't confuse this with any kind of "preseason" ranking from Lacrosse Magazine. Those will come out in December and involve the polling of coaches. This is just one man's opinion.

A Midsummer Night's Power Ranking - MD3

20. RIT (10-6)
Starters Returning: 9
Biggest Loss: Gene Peluso. If you needed further confirmation that Peluso was serious in his intent to repatriate his family back to Long Island, just consider the stacked team he would have had in '10 had he stayed. It's Peluso's departure that is keeping the Tigers from being higher in the rankings. No offense to the coach who gets hired, but it'll likely take a little bit to get on the same page with the players. Regardless, RIT will be a factor in the E8.
Key Returner: Adam Vlassis. Plenty of Tigers could have been in this spot, but Vlassis will be counted on to be a playmaker.
The Word: Will it take a year for the team to get comfortable under its new coach (who has yet to be named)? Or will it use its experience and depth to explode out of the gates? The latter option would be great for the Tigers, but remember RIT raced out to a 5-0 record to start last season before stumbling to a 5-6 finish. On the plus side, the top eight scorers return from last spring. Juniors Kevin Rattigan (8.53 GAA) and Robert Tonnessen (10.75) split time in goal, providing some depth on the backline. Cautious optimism should be the word for the Tigers until they prove they can handle the thick of the Empire 8 schedule.

19. St. John Fisher (15-3)
Starters Returning: 10
Biggest Loss: Dave Wood. Wood graduated a faceoff winning percent of 70.5 - one of the few missing pieces for the Cardinals - so junior Erich Rassow will have to up his game.
Key Returner: Jon Cortina. If Cortina puts together a senior season to remember, or even if he just matches the 8.11 GAA and 58.8 save percentage he posted in '09, Fisher will be tough to beat.
The Word: SJF has made steady improvement since the '02 campaign when it went 2-12, culminating in last year's near-miss in the Empire 8 title game. The potential is there to build upon that record-wise, but hopefully the Cardinals will stiffen up the schedule so they'll have a shot at an at-large. I don't worry about complacency with Fisher, but it won't be overlooked by opponents anymore, meaning Dave Malone (27g, 36a) and others must be ready to face their foe's best effort. Otherwise, the Cardinals may get a rude welcome to the upper echelon.

18. Geneseo (13-2)
Starters Returning: 5
Biggest Loss: Tom Costanza. The leading points man for the Blue Knights and a solid leader, Costanza will be missed.
Key Returner: Craig Lange. With Costanza gone, Lange (27g, 37a) must step up and fill the playmaker role, scoring and setting up the likes of Mike Cintineo (53g).
The Word: Geneseo was left out in the cold after a couple of conference tournament upsets combined with the Blue Knights loss to Cortland by a goal, so it would only make sense that Jim Lyons will be beefing up the non-conference schedule in 2010. According to its website, Genny has already added Ithaca and re-upped with Naz. As a result, the record might not be as pretty, but may pay dividends on Selection Sunday. Defense and game management will be the key for the Knights, and it starts with Erik Baranowski at faceoff. Baranowski, a senior, won 224-of-369 (.609) draws last year and will be expected to at least match that. Dennis Costanza (7.11 GAA) in goal along with poles Joe McCormack and Joe May will keep the defense in good shape.

17. St. Lawrence (13-4; NCAA Second Round)
Starters Returning: 3
Biggest Loss: P.J. Santora. For a team like SLU, which likes to set the tempo of the game, having a guy like Santora (64.4 faceoff percentage) was critical. While Santora was terrific last year, he also took 360 draws. The next highest player on the roster took seven.
Key Returner: Caldwell Rohrbach. Just a freshman last year, Rohrbach scored 24 goals on 67 total shots. And he wasn't afraid to rock the bow tie for his web photo.
The Word: The Saints, on paper, don't have the juice they had coming into the '09 campaign. They lost four of the top five leading scorers, who take 60 percent of the goals scored with them, along with two starting poles and their goalie. Mike Mahoney, however, has managed to have very little letdown from year-to-year, even during seasons when holes needed filling. And unless Union, Clarkson or Hamilton jump up with a big year, it's tough to see SLU not being the class of the Liberty League and having a shot in May.

16. Lynchburg (11-5)
Starters Returning: 7
Biggest Loss: Tyler Tolson. Playing with a poise that calmed his team in tough times, Tolson (50g) was a clutch performer (5 GWG and 14 EMO markers).
Key Returner: Dylan Hoff. With Tolson and Michael Mundorf (23g, 29a) off the roster, Hoff will be targeted by opposing defenses, so the sophomore has to grow up fast.
The Word: Unlike Geneseo and St. John Fisher, Lynchburg would actually do well to tone down their schedule. Last year's non-con slate featured Salisbury, Stevenson, Denison, Cabrini, and Ohio Wesleyan - all tournament teams. Throw in three more games against W&L (2) and Roanoke, and that's half the schedule against top-tier programs. There will likely be little let-up for the Hornets because it's just not Steve Koudelka's way. How it'll end up is still a bit fuzzy, but don't be surprised if LC springs an early season upset.

15. Nazareth (11-7; NCAA First Round)
Starters Returning: 8
Biggest Loss: Alex Cole. A rock in the midfield, Cole doesn't graduate a lot of points, but plenty of leadership.
Key Returner: Todd Dermody. When Dermody (10.14 GAA) and the rest of the Golden Flyers' defense is working precisely, Naz wins. When they aren't, it's usually not pretty. If Dermody, a rising senior, saves his best for last, this could be the year the Flyers get back to dominance.
The Word: The Flyers are always better at the end of the year than at the beginning because Rob Randall doesn't like a lot of filler in his schedule. He wants quality. It showed up last year when Naz knocked off Ithaca and Fisher for the E8 title and captured the auto-bid. When Randall's teams are at their most dangerous is when they are experienced from the get-go, and the Flyers are definitely that in '10. The entire attack, led by senior Mark DeCirce (40g, 15a) and junior Joe Jacobs-Ferderbar (37g, 19a), returns along with the defense. The backline certainly needs to improve, but all the pieces are there for a return to a Golden age.

14. Wesleyan (15-4; NCAA Quarterfinalist)
Starters Returning: 2
Biggest Loss: Spike Malangone. A stud for the Cardinals at long pole, Malangone's presence will be sorely missed.
Key Returner: John Killeen. Wesleyan has taken a huge hit on the offensive end, so Killeen, an attackman, will have high expectations.
The Word: This year has the early look of a team coming to grips with the dreaded "rebuilding year." Names that have become synonymous with the Cardinals success - Malangone, Follansbee, Ben-Eliyahu - graduate. Perhaps more challenging for John Raba is all of his defensive starters are gone. That's not that big a deal for most top programs, but the zone defense, which the Cardinals specialize in, requires a high comfort level among its defenders, including the goalie. That'll take time. By the end of the season they may all be on the same page, but will Wes still be in the hunt?

13. Ithaca (14-2)
Starters Returning: 5
Biggest Loss: Neth Wiedemann. A ground ball machine, Wiedemann was the Bombers' safety blanket on defense.
Key Returner: David Gal. His 22-save performance in the early-season win over Cortland was an indicator of what the junior netminder is capable of. The next task is consistency.
The Word: It's still tough to believe a 14-2 team was left out of the tournament last year, but it should demonstrate to this year's edition of the Bombers the importance of taking care of business in the conference tournament. I expect last year's omission will act for Ithaca in the same way it did for Lynchburg a couple of years ago - putting a huge chip on the collective shoulders of Jeff Long's team and spur them to the tournament in '10. It won't be easy, as the E8 looks to be stronger top-to-bottom than it has in a while, but never underestimate the power of revenge. I expect sophomore attackman Tom Mongelli to have a break-out campaign after showing flashes last spring.

12. Washington & Lee (16-4; NCAA Second Round)
Starters Returning: 4
Biggest Loss: Harry St. John. He was nicked up last year, missing four games, but still managed to net 28 goals out of the midfield.
Key Returner: Will Keigler. After a monster junior year (42g, 36a), Keigler has elevated himself into player of the year discussions.
The Word: It was a heckuva year for the Gennies in '09, but will it bleed into this spring? There were a lot of key pieces who, while perhaps were not on any All-American lists, were crucial to W&L's success and are now in need of replacement. Because of this, combined with the typically stiff non-conference schedule and the usual challenging ODAC slate, I don't think the Generals will be able to match the run. The first order of business for Gene McCabe will be to find a suitable replacement for goalie Connor Locke (7.84 GAA), who was a workhorse.

11. Middlebury (15-3; NCAA Semifinalist)
Starters Returning: 3
Biggest Loss: Mike Stone. All he did was put together one of the finest seasons for a midfielder in NESCAC history.
Key Returner: Pete Smith. He's going to see a lot of unfamiliar faces around him on the offensive end of the field this year, but he'll be expected to reprise his role of set-up man (team-high 45 assists).
The Word: I put the Panthers in the same boat as W&L: a lot of momentum from the '09 season but perhaps not enough cogs remaining to seamlessly carry over into '10. Stone (57g, 16a) is the most obvious missing piece, but Skyler Hopkins (56 pts), Tom Petty (40 pts), Matt Ferrer (34 pts), Dave Campbell (took all but 36 faceoffs) and Peter Britt (10.38 GAA) are also gone. The defense has a couple of key returners in Matt Rayner and Charlie Schopp, but the NESCAC schedule starts at the beginning, so there are no warm-ups for Midd to gain experience.

10. Cabrini (15-4; NCAA Second Round)
Starters Returning: 6
Biggest Loss: Scott Reimer. Reimer (69g) drew a lot of slides, opening up the offensive end for the middies.
Key Returner: Casey Grugan. After last year (52g, 44a), he'd have to considered one of a handful of favorites for player of the year. ‘Nuff said.
The Word: Cabrini was an excellent team last year and should be similar this spring. The obstacle the Cavaliers must hurdle at this point is their conference, which has yet to mature. The Cavs can prime themselves in the first month of the season, playing the likes of Haverford, Gettysburg, Roanoke and Lynchburg, but they then played a CSAC slate where the closest game was 13 goals and the killer instinct atrophies. Cabrini is a team to be reckoned with - as it showed in its one-goal loss to Stevenson in the NCAA Second Round - despite its relatively brief history of success.

9. Denison (14-3; NCAA Quarterfinalist)
Starters Returning: 6
Biggest Loss: Dan Maude. At 6'3", 210, Maude (30g, 15a) was an intimidating presence in the midfield.
Key Returner: Greg Shannon. In his rookie campaign, Shannon (6.73 GAA) played like a seasoned veteran in the cage. If he follows a traditional learning curve, he could be a game-changer this year.
The Word: Mike Caravana and the Big Red brought a whole new attitude to Pool B entrants last year, especially with the dismantling of Roanoke in the second round. You can pencil them in for another bid this year out of the beta pond, but can we expect them to be as dangerous as they were last year? I think so. Brady Burton (53g, 8a) and Emmett Jones (40g, 10a) bring power to the attack and, while there are some gaps on the defense, Shannon will have protection from seniors Cy Ryan and John Payne. Classmate Connor Detjen (190-for-291; 65.3%) adds a dominant faceoff man to the mix. With no overwhelming favorites out there at this point, don't be surprised if this team is hovering near the top of the polls during some point this season.

8. Tufts (13-5; NCAA Second Round)
Starters Returning: 5
Biggest Loss: Matt Harrigan. A starter for four years in Medford, Harrigan (9.02 GAA) allowed his defense to operate efficiently.
Key Returner: D.J. Hessler. Whether it is scoring (42g) or setting up others (47a), Hessler delivers. He should go over the 200-point mark this year as a junior.
The Word: I would understand an argument stating this ranking is too high, but I think the Jumbos will be the class of the NESCAC this year, meaning a spot in the Top 10. This assumption could be fleeting in a slaughterhouse conference such as the NESCAC, and there are certainly question marks for Mike Daly to address, especially in goal as the two returning goalies behind Harrigan last year spent less than 90 minutes between the pipes. Perhaps more critical to Daly is figuring out what happened in the second half of last year when the Jumbos were exposed, going 5-5 in the final two months of the season with curious losses to Bowdoin, Trinity and WNEC in the NCAA tournament - a team they handled, 15-4 in April.

7. Western New England (17-3; NCAA Quarterfinalist)
Starters Returning: 5
Biggest Loss: Brodie Savoie. A clutch performer (7 GWG) who played with poise, Savoie (45g, 14a) was a gamer.
Key Returner: Brewster Knowlton. He's got a name built for the NESCAC, but a goalie game built for All-America in this, his sophomore year.
The Word: Does anyone else have the feeling John Klepacki is getting locked in as a coach and recruiter? He's built the program up to be a national contender, he's in the conference he wants, he's developed a schedule that will keep him in the Pool C discussion, and he's picking some choice talent out of Conn., New York, Mass., and the rest of New England. It's this perception that has me less worried about the holes he has to fill - and they are evident on both ends of the field. Tim Santye (43g, 12a) and Knowlton (6.00 GAA; 65.5 sv%) should provide enough of a foundation in which to build another contender in 2010.

6. Haverford (13-4; NCAA Second Round)
Starters Returning: 9
Biggest Loss: Mike Murphy. I don't think one can really appreciate what kind of coach Murphy is until you look at the program before he arrived in '03. The Black Squirrels will get a good coach, but Murphy will be hard to replace right away.
Key Returner: Max Hjelm. Almost by default, Hjelm (45g, 13a), the leading scorer, earns this label, although Joe Banno's development in goal will be huge. At 6'4", 263, I mean that literally.
The Word: You know the Penn job was the one Murphy was looking for because he leaves behind a complete team ready for a deep NCAA run. If the coaching situation remained static, the Fords would have easily been in the Top 3. Along with a new head coach, the Squirrels face a schedule that includes Cabrini, FDU-Florham, St. Lawrence, Gettysburg and Denison in the first three weeks of the season, so Haverford will have to prove it can make the transition. If the Fords are 6-2 heading into the conference opener on March 24 with Muhlenberg, they'll be in good shape.

5. Salisbury (16-4; NCAA Quarterfinalist)
Starters Returning: 8
Biggest Loss: Kylor Berkman. Figure it out.
Key Returner: Mike Von Kamecke. Despite getting plenty of attention from the opposition, Berkman (42g, 41a) always produced in the midfield. Von Kamecke must be able to handle being a marked man and still score goals. A good step will becoming a better (not necessarily harder) shooter.
The Word: With eight starters and a host of talent returning, Salisbury would normally be a lock for the top spot, but something was missing last year and I have to be convinced they can get it back. Was it swagger? Killer instinct? It certainly wasn't talent. When I talked with Jim Berkman in May, I almost got the sense that he felt the breaks that usually went the Gulls' way in the past were going the other direction in '09. That seems simplistic, but it would explain two one-goal losses and a two-goal loss in the tournament. I'm starting to sound like a Salisbury apologist, which no one wants to hear with their track record.

4. Gettysburg (16-4; NCAA Finalist)
Starters Returning: 6
Biggest Loss: Tommy Kehoe. Not only was Kehoe the Player of the Year, but he gave the Bullets versatility on defense.
Key Returner: Tim Kurpis. With goalie Zach Furshman gone, along with Kehoe and Yanni Peary, the defense needs an anchor. Kurpis needs to answer that bell.
The Word: Before I started pouring over the Bullets roster, I expected to see a higher attrition rate, but Gettysburg returns a lot of key pieces, including Kurpis, Joe Brody (20g, 33a) and Kyle McGrath (31g, 10a). Like so many other teams, finding a replacement for Furshman will be paramount on Hank Janczyk's to-do list. Making it slightly more complicated is the only other goalies to get any run in '09 - John Gilfillan and Charles Floeckher - also graduated (there are still two sophomores on the roster). What's important to keep in mind about the Bullets is the light bulb went on for Janczyk midway through last spring, helping catapult Gettysburg to the title game. If it stays on, no reason to think a repeat performance is out of the question.

3. Stevenson (17-2; NCAA Semifinalist)
Starters Returning: 6
Biggest Loss: Nic Bevacqua. The third-leading scorer out of the midfield, Bevacqua was a horse. I could easily put midfield linemates Greg Furshman or Brett Yoder here.
Key Returner: Steve Kazimer. It's tough to top Kazimer's junior year - 33g, 36a, and an Attackman of the Year plaque. There is one weakness in Kazimer's game, however: a tendency to take a lot of penalties, many of the needless variety. Kazimer's numbers (17 penalties, 18.5 minutes) are usually reserved for long poles. There's something to be said for a hard-riding attackman, but Kazimer is picking up a lot of his minutes with silly unsportsmanlike stuff. If he tightens that up, he's on the player of the year short list.
The Word: Paul Cantabene will have the luxury of returning arguably the best attack in the country intact, but he will also face the challenge of replacing the aforementioned Bevacqua, Furshman and Yoder in the midfield. What puts Stevenson at No. 3 is a defense that returns three important cogs - sophomores Ian Hart and Evan Douglass and senior goalie Geoff Hebert (7.04 GAA; 59.4 sv%) - along with the aplomb Cantabene has shown at restocking his cupboard.

2. Roanoke (17-2; NCAA Second Round)
Starters Returning: 8
Biggest Loss: Zach Thomas. It seems like Thomas has been around for six years, and his presence (34g, 25a) will be tough to replace.
Key Returner: Jeff Keating. Scoring 30 goals and dishing out 15 assists as a freshman, Keating is on the right track to match the résumé of his older brother Chris, who was the '06 USILA Player of the Year for the Maroons.
The Word: This is a big leap of faith, especially considering the way the '09 season ended for the Maroons. But I'm willing to make the jump assuming Roanoke toughens up its schedule. At least a little bit. This is probably not a popular sentiment for ‘Nokers, but I think the decision to soften up the non-con slate last year (Cabrini was the only ranked team) proved critical when the Maroons ran into stiff competition at the end. In Bill Pilat's defense, it's kind of a Catch-22 under the current selection criteria because we've seen very good teams (Ithaca being the most recent example) that aren't getting bids even with outstanding records, and Pilat did accomplish his goal of earning a bid out of Pool C when he needed it. However, if you aren't playing the mettle on a consistent basis, you sometimes find yourself not prepared to play high end teams when it matters. Scheduling aside, ‘Noke has a ton of talent returning and the understanding of what it takes against the elites. So we'll give them the benefit of the doubt for now.

1. Cortland (19-2; NCAA Champion)
Starters Returning: 6
Biggest Loss: Luke Lemon. He was a massive factor in four NCAA finals appearances and two national title triumphs. You just can't replace that kind of experience.
Key Returner: Justin Schneidman. No one will replace Lemon on defense, but Schneidman will certainly help. Lemon's steadiness was a hallmark, and Schneidman has a similar game.
The Word: The conventional coaching wisdom is you don't start judging a coach until year four when he has all of his players on board. That's a pretty frightening thought for the rest of D-III considering Steve Beville has been to the title game three times and won a title in his walk-up to this, his fourth campaign. The most impressive part of Beville's teams for me is the ability to take an early-to-midseason loss or two, learn from them, and then finish strong. Getting to the details, nine of the top 10 scorers are back in '10, and Beville might have to lean on the offense early on as the Dragons break in a new goalie to replace Matt Hipenbecker (7.10 GAA) and a couple of new poles. Cortland won't go undefeated, but all the numbers point to the championship going through Beville and the Dragons again.