Getting Picky: MCLA-2 Tourney Predictions
by Jac Coyne | Lacrosse Magazine Online Staff | Coyne Archive | Twitter
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| Dayton is looking to repeat its appearance in the MCLA Division II national championship game. Jac Coyne certainly has them seeded to accomplish the feat. |
MCLA Division I Projections
Everything gets announced in the next 24 hours –
depending on the whims of the committee – and we’ll
finally get the 16-team tournament fields for both the MCLA
Division I and Division II unveiled for Denver 2010.
The funny thing is I’ve got your selections right here.
Through a blend of math, deduction and reason – there is no
announced criteria for the MCLA selection process –
I’ve narrowed down the participants and their seedings for
nationals, which begin on Tuesday, May 11, at Dick’s Sporting
Goods Park.
It was a very good year for the MCLA. There will be several
tournament-quality teams left out of the Division I field and even
D-II, which is in its first year with a 16-team field, was highly
competitive and also boasts numerous teams with adequate resumes
who will be following from home.
Thus my – and the committee’s – job will not be
easy.
I almost nailed the Division II bracket last year – the committee
decided to give an 11-6 Westminster team the defending champion
discount over 11-1 Elon – but with the expansion this year
the picking will be more difficult.
Below is how it should look.
Who’s out
Fort
Lewis (9-5) – The Skyhawks had the
potential to be a thorn in the committee’s side, especially
after they received new life when Northern Arizona pulled out of
the RMLC tourney, but the loss to Montana State closed the door.
Had Fort Lewis finished with a 10-4 record (one of their losses was
to Division I Texas Tech) and made it to the conference semifinals,
they still might have been on the outside, but it would have been
really close.
Grove
City (6-3) – The Wolverines had two
really big chips in their pile with wins over SCAD and SELC champ
Elon, but three straight losses to end the season, including an
odd, 17-6 setback to Hope, negated any early season accolades.
Because of the size of its schedule – it played nine total
games even with the conference tourney – GCC had almost no
margin for error. That caught up with them in the end. It’s
too bad, because I would have liked to see more of this team.
Hope
(11-5) – The Dutchmen aren’t left out because
of what they did, but rather what they didn’t do. MCLA bylaws
state that to be eligible for an at-large selection a team must
have at least two non-conference games against D-II opponents. Hope
has three non-con games, but two of them come against MCLA D-I
foes, meaning it was CCLA title or bust for the Dutchmen.
It’s a tough lesson to learn because Hope would be tough to
leave out.
SCAD
(9-4) – Are the Bees really out? I wouldn’t be
stunned if the committee selected them, but I just don’t
think the SELC is a three-team league.
Tennessee
Wesleyan (10-5) – The Bulldogs fell down
the same bunny hole as Hope, failing to schedule enough Division II
non-conference games – they had hoped the D-I game against
Indiana, in which they won, would suffice. Ultimately, TWC would
have been behind SCAD in the pecking order, but we don’t have
to worry about them now.
UC Santa
Cruz (9-5) – I’ll be honest: I had
the Slugs in until the loss to St. Mary’s in the WCLL title
game on Sunday. They had a huge chip in the game with the win over
Westminster and showed a willingness to travel anywhere to get a
game – they only had two home games – and Western
Oregon winning the PNCLL title gave the schedule a double dose of
gravitas. I'm really surprised by that loss, although St.
Mary’s has proven they’re a decent team. (The WCLL
doesn’t get an AQ).
The Field
1. St.
Thomas (13-0) – Nothing terribly
surprising here. The schedule wasn’t the stiffest in the
country, but the committee would really have to work to find a
reason not to have the Tommies in the top spot.
2. Dayton
(10-1) – The Flyers survived the two-day, three-game
chamber of horrors known as the CCLA tourney, thus they get
rewarded with the second spot. Do they have the schedule to be a
No. 1 seed? Absolutely, but that lone loss to GVSU keeps Dayton in
the second chair.
3. Utah
Valley (15-3) – The Wolverines only loss
in Division II was a one-goal setback to RMLC rival Westminster in
the regular season, which was avenged in the conference
championship game, 18-10. Utah Valley is the best team in the west,
and it will be interesting if/when they take on a team from one of
the power conferences from the central and east. Definitely a
championship contender.
4. St.
John’s (13-4) – The Johnnies are
playing very well right now, they just can’t get over the St.
Thomas hump. Thanks in part to a couple of games with the Tommies,
SJU’s opponent’s winning percentage is excellent, and
they’ll get points for the trip to Ohio.
5. Grand Valley
State (11-3) – You could make a case that
GVSU should be the No. 4 seed, but the head-to-head loss to the
Johnnies pushes them to fifth. It doesn’t really matter as
the two teams would see each other in the quarterfinal round even
with the seeds flipped.
6. Davenport
(12-3) – Another dangerous team, because when the
Panthers get rolling on offense, they are tough to stop. This is
the perfect spot for them because they’ll avoid running into
any CCLA opponents until the semifinals if they get that far,
allowing the conference to display its prowess, or lack there
of.
7. Westminster
(11-5) – The Griffins have two puzzling losses this
year – UC Santa Cruz and Fort Lewis – which drops them
down a little bit further than maybe they hoped. If you throw out
the D-I games, Westminster is 8-3, so this is about right.
8. Western
Oregon (13-4) – The Wolves were going no
matter what, but they jumped into the saucy side of the seedings
with the overtime win against Western Washington in the PNCLL
finals. Solid schedule and the showing in Vegas helped.
9. Elon
(10-2) – The Phoenix are not a team to take lightly.
They lost in overtime to Dayton in the first game of the season and
then a day later to Grove City, but haven’t lost since. The
don’t play a premium schedule, but the wins in the SELC
tourney give Elon a bit of a bump.
10. Western
Washington (9-6) – They’ve got the
schedule and they’ve proven through travel that they want a
shot at Denver. The record’s not great – it’s 8-5
if you take away the D-I games – but it would send the wrong
message to the membership if the Vikings were not included.
11. Kennesaw
State (13-4) – KSU is the runner-up in
decent conference, has traveled, and has been competitive in every
game they played. The SOS numbers aren’t the greatest, but
they look a lot better when you add the winning percentage to
them.
12. Northern
Colorado (9-3) – I don’t think
there is much question that Grove City should be in this spot
talent-wise, but I can’t see how the committee could reward a
team that did the absolute minimum in terms of scheduling and
travel. In addition to GCC, I think SCAD could be a contender for
this spot. No disrespect to Northern Colorado, which is a decent
team, but they’re backing into this one.
13. Cal State
Fullerton (12-5) – The Titans only have
two losses to D-II teams – Utah Valley and Fort Lewis –
so don’t be fooled by the record. All of Fullerton’s
solid wins have come through their conference – Concordia and
twice over Biola – but they shouldn’t be
overlooked. They just can’t run with the big boys in terms of
scheduling yet. That buys them the low seed.
14. Missouri
State (11-5) – The Bears didn’t
have the most impressive campaign, but they won when it counted and
picked up the GRLC auto-bid. Missouri State seems to have found its
defense, which is always nice to have heading to Denver.
15. Sam Houston
State (10-2) – The Bearkats were the
first ones to punch their ticket to Denver, but will
be idle for 16 days by the time they play their first round
game. The schedule is pretty creamy, so Sam Houston likely
would have been No. 16 if not for Briarcliffe’s scheduling
insouciance.
16. Briarcliffe
(9-0) – They probably have the talent to be ranked
higher, but the committee will let the Seahawks know that not even
attempting to play a non-conference game will have consequences. In
this case, it’s a No. 16 seed.
The First Round Games
No. 16 Briarcliffe vs. No. 1 St. Thomas
No. 15 Sam Houston State vs. No. 2 Dayton
No. 14 Missouri State vs. No. 3 Utah Valley
No. 13 Cal State Fullerton vs. No. 4 St. John’s
No. 12 Northern Colorado vs. No. 5 Grand Valley State
No. 11 Kennesaw State vs. No. 6 Davenport
No. 10 Western Washington vs. No. 7 Westminster
No. 9 Elon vs. No. 8 Western Oregon
