Getting Picky: MCLA-1 Tournament Projections
by Jac Coyne | Lacrosse Magazine Online Staff | Coyne Archive | Twitter
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| Florida State should easily snag one of the six at-large spots in the tourney. Jac Coyne predicts the entire field with seedings. |
MCLA Division II Projections
Everything gets settled on Sunday night or Monday morning –
depending on the whims of the committee – and we’ll
finally get the 16-team tournament fields for both the MCLA
Division I and Division II unveiled for Denver 2010.
I’ve got your selections right here.
Through a blend of math, deduction and reason – there is no
announced criteria for the MCLA selection process –
I’ve narrowed down the participants and their seeding for the
nationals, which begin on Tuesday, May 11 at Dick’s Sporting
Goods Park.
It was a very good year for the MCLA. There will be several
tournament-quality teams left out of the Division I field and even
D-II, which is in its first year, was highly competitive and also
boasts numerous teams with adequate resumes. Thus my – and
the committee’s – job will not be easy.
Let’s look at what we know.
We know that the committee loves a strong schedule. It showed us
last year a team doesn’t even have to beat good teams –
Oregon got the nod over Cal and Michigan State even though they
were 0-5 against ranked teams – you just have to play them. A
pretty record is not going to get you into the tourney; there must
be some substance.
And that’s about all we know for sure. We should be able to
triangulate the committee’s criteria a bit more this year,
but until they are released for sure there is still quite a bit of
guesswork involved.
Below is how it should play out.
Who’s out
Colorado
(6-7) – No matter the schedule or talent level, the
association can’t afford to set a precedent where a team with
a losing record gains an at-large bid. As personally as some want
to take it, this isn’t a Colorado issue. It’s a growth
issue. Either the MCLA joins the rest of the sports world by
rewarding those teams that have the ability to balance results and
strength, or it further perpetuates its outlier status.
Lindenwood
(12-6) – Lindenwood was probably closer to the
at-large bid than people think – the Lions have played the
No. 2, No. 5 and No. 6 teams in the country – so the schedule
is better than a lot of teams, but the loss to Wisconsin in the
semifinals of the GRLC ends that discussion.
Loyola
Marymount (13-5) – The Lions were in, but
Oregon gives them the heave-ho. It’s little consolation, but
LMU was tourney team No. 17.
New
Hampshire (11-3) – The record is there,
but the strength is somewhat lacking. With Colorado dipping below
.500, the Wildcats’ signature win is tempered. UNH’s
run this year should give the PCLL more cred going forward, but the
lack of depth in the conference makes it a one-bid league in
2010.
Texas
(11-5) – The ‘Horns picked the worst time to
play their worst game. Texas State is obviously a decent team, but
UT will likely be kicking themselves well into the summer for
letting their chance at Denver slip away because they knew all
along that the LSA wasn’t going to get a second bid.
Virginia
Tech (13-3) – When a team schedules
Pittsburgh (5-9), Purdue (4-9) and Marquette (4-10) as its
non-conference opponents, it’s either banking on the strength
of its conference or it plans on winning the AQ. While the SELC is
a decent league, it’s not enough to propel the Hokies into
the tourney, even with the shiny record. I’m not even sure
that Tech would have earned a nod with a win over Florida or
Florida State considering the strength of some of the schedules it
is going against. The trips to California by UF and FSU also
highlight the Hokies’ travel schedule and it’s longest
trip to…Greenville, N.C.?
The Field
1. Colorado
State (16-1) – Yes, they lost to
Michigan, but the body of work is more impressive than the
Wolverines, so the Rams get the top seed. With UM at No. 2,
it’s really not that big of a deal.
2. Michigan
(14-1) – The Wolverines enter the tournament looking
a little more vulnerable than the last two years, but don’t
kid yourself: Big Blue is still the favorite.
3. Arizona
State (13-3) – The Sun Devils have been
flying under the radar with a front-loaded schedule, but they
showed what they are capable of in the SLC championship game
against Chapman. The win bumps ASU ahead of the Panthers into the
No. 3 hole.
4. Chapman
(14-2) – Seriously, how far can Chapman fall with
their body of work? In some years it could be further, but there is
no one behind them with the juice to jump ahead. They stay a
semifinalist seed.
5. Minnesota-Duluth
(13-3) – Undoubtedly a talented team, but
we’ll see how sharp the UMLL automatic qualifier is after
breezing through the back half of its schedule, when the closest
game was by eight goals. The three losses for the Bulldogs were to
teams (Michigan, Colorado State and Arizona State) seeded ahead of
them.
6. BYU
(11-5) – Not the most sterling record for the
Cougars, but the strength is enough to get it into the tournament
as an at-large. BYU is a lower seed than it’s used to being,
and they’ll be severely tested in the first round.
7. Florida
State (14-3) – The SELC tourney loss to
Florida definitely hurts, and cost the Seminoles at least two
seeds, but the resume is still very strong. FSU did the traveling
and everything it needed to do during the regular season, so
don’t expect a plummet like you saw in the polls after the
Gator loss.
8. Michigan
State (10-5) – You can’t argue with
the schedule. The Spartans played the mettle of the MCLA and won
twice as much as they lost. That’s how it’s done.
Sparty is bracketed nicely by a team it lost to (FSU) and a team it
beat (Oregon). The right spot.
9. Oregon
(10-4) – How about those Ducks? Oregon snatches a
berth just when it looked like they would be on the outside looking
in. And they handled Fraser relatively easily in the PNCLL title
game. They already avenged one loss and I think they’ll get a
shot to do it again.
10. UC Santa
Barbara (10-6) – If the Gauchos got in
last year, they certainly are in this year. The wins over Florida
and Loyola Marymount are clutch. The losses to Cal Poly and
California were early, but could cost the Gauchos a seed or two if
the committee gets picky.
11. Florida
(12-3) – That was a pretty impressive run to the
SELC tournament crown, especially shrugging off the regular season
beatdown to Florida State and upending the ‘Noles in the
quarterfinals. The head-to-head loss to UCSB puts a ceiling on how
high the Gators can climb.
12. Simon
Fraser (8-7) – They’re in. Even
through their ridiculously bad start to the season, the Clan just
kept plugging along and now will get rewarded for not quitting.
Even with the Oregon loss in the PNCLL tourney, this is not a team
you want to see in your half of the bracket.
13. Cal
Poly (12-4) – The WCLL is a shell of its
former self after the SLC split and this seed demonstrates that.
Judging by their results, the Mustangs will be in the role of
spoiler in this tournament, but aren’t really threats to win
it all. I’d love them to prove me wrong.
14. Illinois
(12-2) – The win over Florida on the road means this
is not a team to be trifled with, but the overall schedule
doesn’t stack up with the teams ahead of it. I can’t
see the Fighting Illini any higher than here.
15. Boston
College (11-2) – The Eagles are a low
seed, but only because of the relative lack of strength in the PCLL
and BC’s brief non-conference foray in which they lost to
Michigan State and Florida State. BC will pose problems in the
tournament because they play very good defense, which always gives
them a chance.
16. Texas
State (12-3) – We got an inkling about
what Texas State was bringing this year when it beat Cal on the
road in early March, and the Bobcats took out all of the guesswork
by dispatching Texas, 12-10 in the LSA title game. State
didn’t play a horrible schedule, it’s just weaker than
the rest of the field.
The First Round Games
No. 16 Texas State vs. No. 1 Colorado State
No. 15 Boston College vs. No. 2 Michigan
No. 14 Illinois vs. No. 3 Arizona State
No. 13 Cal Poly vs. No. 4 Chapman
No. 12 Simon Fraser vs. No. 5 Minnesota-Duluth
No. 11 Florida vs. No. 6 Brigham Young
No. 10 UC Santa Barbara vs. No. 7 Florida State
No. 9 Oregon vs. No. 8 Michigan State
