Making Sense: A Capricious Tourney View
by Jac Coyne
| Lacrosse Magazine Online Staff | Coyne Archive |
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| Will Lynchburg have enough on its resume to launch the Hornets into the NCAA tourney? |
Things have piled up coming back from vacation – the
perils of leaving the small schools in the hands of
scholarship-ophiles – so I’m going concentrate this
week's column on the Pool B (independent) and Pool C (at-large
bids) in the MD3 and WD3 and the at-large picks in the MCLA
divisions.
I began it in last week’s column, but I’m a little
torn about starting this kind of stuff this early because there are
still so many moving parts.
For example, Connecticut College has proven it is the class of the
NESCAC by defeating Tufts. Still, it's really hard to think a
team that has such limited postseason tournament experience can
grind out three games in a league that has already seen it
once.
For a second example, the Hamilton women are clearly the No. 1
team in the country right now in the polls, but would anyone other
than the Dutchwomen coaches, players and parents take them with
complete confidence over Union in a regular season contest (which
will be played on May 1), nevermind mind in the Liberty League
tournament? I’d say the Continentals are definitely favored,
but not prohibitively.
There are more examples in the MCLA to make the point, but I think
you’ve got it by now. So I’m going to do some
spitballing and see what shakes out in the end.
Men’s Division III
You always have to be careful with the NCAA divisions because they
are more formulaic in regards to their criteria than the MCLA
(which operates off an unspecified set of criteria). If we can keep
the criteria in mind while not being enslaved to
it, we can come up with a likely list at this point.
Pool C Watch
1. Stevenson
(14-1) – The only possible loss imaginable is to Salisbury
again, and that certainly won’t keep them out. You figure the
Mustangs are in with a pretty solid seed.
2. Dickinson
(13-1) – If the Red Devils beat McDaniel in the season
finale, they can still take a loss in the Centennial semifinals
(it’s only a four-team tourney) and still earn a bid.
3. Tufts
(10-1) – Endicott, Middlebury and Bowdoin all remain, and all
in Medford. You’d have to assume the Jumbos will go at least
2-1 in that stretch. Even with a stumble in the NESCAC semis,
that’s 13-3, which should easily get them in.
4. Geneseo (8-2)
– The two biggest arrows in the Blue Knights’ quiver
right now are Union (9-2) and Naz (10-2). They look pretty good ,
but if those two teams end up winning the Liberty and Empire 8,
respectively, that should put Genny comfortably through.
5. Nazareth
(10-2) – Out of respect to its perfect record,
Fisher gets the E8 auto-bid, so the Flyers grab the last
spot. I wouldn’t argue if someone said Naz’s schedule
is harder than Geneseo’s, but the head-to-head settles that
equation.
Looking In
A Third NESCAC – This has been a slam dunk in
the recent past, and it could still happen, but it will only be
solidified on May 9 with an upset tournament win by one of the No.
3-thru-8 seeds in the conference tourney. Using history as a guide,
this will bump the E8 or SUNYAC runner-up and install both Conn.
College and Tufts in Pool C. At this point it would be presumptuous
to assume either the Jumbos or the Camels won’t walk away
with the hardware.
A Second ODAC – The best chance comes if Roanoke
gets kicked to Pool C like last year, but with losses to Stevenson
and Dickinson head-to-head and the near certainty of a NESCAC
second team, that would mean the Maroons would have to beat out
Genny or Naz with similar in-region records. If Lynchburg beats
W&L this weekend, the Hornets will also have a crack if they
finish 13-5.
The Liberty League – I could be
convinced that RPI, St. Lawrence, Skidmore and Union could all win
the conference tourney. Likewise, I could be convinced that SLU
could find itself on the outside if Clarkson gets hot in the last
two games. The loss by RPI to Middlebury on Tuesday hurts the
Engineers chances at getting an at-large, leaving Union with an
outside shot with a little help at this point.
Pool B Watch
1. Denison
(8-2) – It’s natural to look for a reason to bounce the
Big Red out of the top spot in Pool B after their bizarre losses,
but they’ve still beat their biggest competition for the
berth. They stay at the top.
2. Ohio
Wesleyan (8-3) – The Bishops’ only remaining
stumbling block is Wittenberg on May 5. Even if it somehow loses to
Whittier, a win against the Tigers will be enough to snag OWU the
third spot.
3. Colorado
College (8-2) – These are heady days for the
Tigers. Barring their sticks not showing up in Arkansas, CC will
finish 10-2 along with the SCAC championship and, more importantly,
the first-ever tourney berth. The Wittenberg win
punched the ticket.
Looking In
Wittenberg – Honestly, that’s really it, and
they’ll need to win the last three, including at Ohio
Wesleyan. Whittier and Greensboro are off the grid and none of the
other NCACs have a shot. Morrisville State doesn’t have the
strength, so here we are.
Women’s
Division III
I would argue this is one of the more straight-forward
women's selections in quite a while. At least at this point,
anyway. There will be some movement before everything is in the
books on May 9, but not enough to sway me off these picks.
Pool C Watch
1. Colby
(10-2) – I could see Gettysburg getting the jump on the White
Mules if Colby had a let-down, but that’s about it. Colby is
playing for a potential regional right now.
2. Tufts
(9-2) – The Jumbos could finish at 11-4 and still make the
tourney. Not that I’d recommend that, but right now Tufts
would have to crumble to be left out.
3. Union
(7-5) – Jessica Critchlow is participating in a stare-down
with the committee. She has the best schedule in the country and is
daring the NCAA to keep her out. Even if they finished with an 11-7
record, the Dutchwomen deserve at least the last bid (although
Union could have done without the loss to Cortland on Tuesday).
I’ll take Union’s 11-7 record this year over
Middlebury’s 10-6 mark last year.
4. Gettysburg
(13-2) – Franklin & Marshall on Wednesday. Everything
could change (in a positive way) then, or pretty much remain the
same.
5. Mary
Washington (11-4) – When you’re second
behind a powerhouse, you tend to be left in a blind spot. The
Eagles have proven their worth and fill out all the criteria.
6. Bowdoin
(8-4) – If you want to say Ithaca should be in this spot I
probably won’t fight you too much. Just let me know the last
time an E8 team beat out a NESCAC for a tourney berth. (If you want
the cheat sheet, it was 2007 when, with all due respect to the
Division III ghost of Sue Behme, a 13-3 Nazareth team astoundingly
beat out a 12-5 Colby team that advanced to the NESCAC finals).
Looking In
Ithaca
– I realize this is kind of slap in the face of the Bombers
since they are going to have the No. 1 seed in the Empire 8
tourney. The prediction business can be ugly at times. Even with
all of the evidence staring me in the face, I’m not convinced
Ithaca will beat Stevens again. Perhaps the bigger question is
whether Stevens would have a shot at the Pool C. I think they
would, likely taking the last spot with its head-to-head win over
Bowdoin.
A Fourth NESCAC – Certainly not unheard of –
the conference sent four last year and has done it other times in
the past, as well – but it’s tough to envision it this
year. Williams will be tough to keep out if they finish 13-5,
however it would just cement a third spot and not lock down a
fourth.
Pool B Watch
1. TCNJ
(12-1) – After the close shave to Drew and the loss to Rowan,
it’s clear that TCNJ is susceptible to bouts of boredom.
That’s on Sharon Pfluger. She’s the best coach in
women’s lacrosse, but every season has its challenges.
That’s hers.
2. Catholic
(8-6) – I’ve said it before. I’ll say it again.
Megan McDonogh is the coach of the year.
3. Rowan
(8-5) – Such a dilemma. Should I give Rowan too little or too
much credit for the TCNJ win? The Profs are obviously a
no-brainer addition, but I think I’ve got them right
here.
4. Drew
(7-7) – The Rangers are now in the clear now that
they’ve hit .500. Book ‘em for the tourney.
5. Adrian
(10-2) – I predicted
in December that it would be Adrian beating out
Claremont for the Western Indies bid to the tourney (along with
nailing nearly all of the predictions). I still cling to the
choice, but Claremont is no slouch.
Looking In
Claremont – It comes down to May 5. That game should
be televised.
MCLA
Division I
At-Large Watch
1. Brigham
Young (10-2) – Even with an 0-3 flameout to end
the season, it’s tough to not predicting the Cougars in the
tourney.
2. Arizona
State (10-3) – The Sun Devils are deservedly going
to Denver, but like BYU, there are some lingering questions about
ASU’s title qualifications.
3. Michigan
State (8-3) – Even with the impending loss to
Michigan this weekend and in the CCLA championships, if Sparty can
wrap it up at 9-4, they’re in.
4. Oregon
(8-4) – The seed may not be what they hoped for – it
could be running in the double-digits – but the Ducks should
be in regardless of a second loss to Simon Fraser.
5. UC Santa
Barbara (9-4) – The Gauchos won all of the games
they needed to – the Florida and Loyola Marymount games in
particular – to feel pretty secure about Denver. The biggest
worry for UCSB at this point is Cal Poly or Florida State getting
thrown into the at-large pool. Both are unlikely, but one or both
should make the Gauchos sweat.
6. Loyola
Marymount (11-4) – If any of the conference
tourney favorite gets bounced into the at-large field, it’s
the Lions who will be skimmed off the top. Not a fun spot to be in.
LMU would do well to make the SLC title game.
Looking In
Florida
– They’ve got the wins over two next-tier tourney
contenders – Virginia Tech and Northeastern – but the
losses to UCSB and Illinois are cripplers. They’ll need the
win over FSU to be in the hunt.
Colorado
– The Buffs are a bit of a cause célèbre in the
MCLA world after the stunning win over Michigan, but at two games
below .500 and some dubious losses balancing out the high-powered
wins, there are questions. If the committee lets a sub-.500 team
into the tournament it would be a devastating precedent that would
set the association back a decade. If CU gets to even, it should be
considered (however certainly not a lock).
New
Hampshire – If the Wildcats finish at 10-2 in the
regular season and make the PCLL finals, the NCAA criteria would
project UNH going over Colorado. Simple math. What will the MCLA
committee deem?
MCLA Division II
At-Large Watch
1. Dayton
(8-1) – Even with a quick exit in the CCLA tourney, I think
the runner-up discount gets the Flyers in at a slightly lesser
seed. A runner-up finish and you’re looking at a Top 5
seed.
2. St.
John’s – Don’t get trapped in the
weekly rankings; the Johnnies could easily be a Top 4 seed when
everything plays out. SJU is a lock.
3. Westminster
(9-3) – The Griffins have already defeated Utah Valley
– the only obstacle to the RMLC title – so I’m
taking the path less traveled to put them in the at-large pool. I
wouldn’t be surprised if they grabbed the AQ, but you can put
UVU here if the script flips. I think it’s the right choice,
however. Regardless, Westminster is going to Denver. The remaining
schedule just determines the seed.
4. Davenport
(10-2) – Admittedly, the Panthers have lost both of the key
games they needed – Dayton and Grand Valley – and I
think that will be reflected in the seeding, but they’re
in.
5. Kennesaw
State (12-3) – When looking through the NCAA
prism, the Owls have the perfect blend of strength of schedule and
key wins to make the difference. You’ve got to assume it will
apply here.
6. Western
Oregon (11-4) – Whereas I believe the first five
are locks, we’re now moving into the bubble zone. I feel good
about the Wolves, but they’ll need to get to the PNCLL
championship game to pay this off. An earlier loss and they are
asking to be ignored. It’s WOU strength of schedule that
proves critical.
7. Santa
Cruz (9-4) – See below.
Looking In
Grove City
College – I see the last pick as being a
philosophical referendum for the selection committee. Do they pick
Grove City, the team from the “power conference” with
the constricted schedule both in its size and travel length –
the Wolverines farthest jaunt was a five-hour bus ride to
Cincinnati for a couple of “neutral site” games against
two decent SELC teams – or do they chose the team with a less
flashy record but against deeper competition and primarily on the
road? It’s a false choice because it's impossible to
equivocate the two, but we can futher triangulate the committee
with this pick. I think they’ll trend toward Santa Cruz at
this point, although that's a hunch. It's a complete coin
flip.
Elon
– The Phoenix have a thin schedule, not unlike Grove City,
but they don’t have the wins they need. Bottom line: if Grove
City isn’t in, Elon certainly isn’t.
Fluidity is the name of the game these days, but there will be
more accrued information in the future that will
narrow the field. There are a lot of surprises in store for us
over the next fortnight and I, for one, am excited about it.
Hopefully your team makes it.
